【SOL 4H】It bounced, but new longs didn’t enter
$SOL bounced from oversold to 112.75 (Binance Futures, 15:07), but I don’t think this marks the start of a new rally.
Hong Kong’s second spot SOL ETF launches tomorrow. The news is positive, but futures traders haven’t followed through with increased positions.
There are three pieces of evidence:
① Open interest rose just 0.76% over 24 hours, while BTC and ETH were both up more than 2% over the same period.
② The long/short account ratio fell from 2.41 to 2.30, suggesting some longs exited during the rebound.
③ Turnover across the last 10 4H candles was only 0.57 times the previous average—volume hasn’t picked up.
Structurally, it’s still ranging. The 116–117.4 resistance zone, where Fib 0.618 and MA99 overlap, is the toughest wall to break.
Plan 1: Consider placing a small short near 116.5, with a stop at 118.1 and a first target of 113.1.
Plan 2: If price retests around 110.8 and shows signs of holding, consider placing a small long, with a stop at 107.9 and a target of 116.
Invalidation: If SOL holds above 118 on strong 4H volume, that would mean new money is genuinely coming in, and short positions should be closed at a loss. A break below 108 invalidates the bullish scenario.
On the ETF’s first day tomorrow, do you think it can push SOL to 116?
Source: Odaily, Binance Futures data
$SOL #Solana #ETF
#Binance Square
⚠️ The above is a summary of information and personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR.
$SOL bounced from oversold to 112.75 (Binance Futures, 15:07), but I don’t think this marks the start of a new rally.
Hong Kong’s second spot SOL ETF launches tomorrow. The news is positive, but futures traders haven’t followed through with increased positions.
There are three pieces of evidence:
① Open interest rose just 0.76% over 24 hours, while BTC and ETH were both up more than 2% over the same period.
② The long/short account ratio fell from 2.41 to 2.30, suggesting some longs exited during the rebound.
③ Turnover across the last 10 4H candles was only 0.57 times the previous average—volume hasn’t picked up.
Structurally, it’s still ranging. The 116–117.4 resistance zone, where Fib 0.618 and MA99 overlap, is the toughest wall to break.
Plan 1: Consider placing a small short near 116.5, with a stop at 118.1 and a first target of 113.1.
Plan 2: If price retests around 110.8 and shows signs of holding, consider placing a small long, with a stop at 107.9 and a target of 116.
Invalidation: If SOL holds above 118 on strong 4H volume, that would mean new money is genuinely coming in, and short positions should be closed at a loss. A break below 108 invalidates the bullish scenario.
On the ETF’s first day tomorrow, do you think it can push SOL to 116?
Source: Odaily, Binance Futures data
$SOL #Solana #ETF
#Binance Square
⚠️ The above is a summary of information and personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR.