Macro in 3 Minutes | October 12
There are no new macro events today, so this column is now about the three numbers I’m watching.
1. Why there’s nothing to cover
The U.S. Treasury market is closed, and the latest data still ends on October 9. The Fed’s latest release is still the Survey of Consumer Finances, and the Bank of Japan hasn’t published any new rate statement. China’s loan rates are still at the September 20 levels: 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, unchanged. I’m not going to force a story just for the sake of having one.
2. The three numbers I’m watching
1️⃣ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.24%, still at Friday’s close. The short end is at 4.80%, and the 30-year is stuck at 5.60%. No one’s changed anything over the weekend.
2️⃣ The Fear & Greed Index is at 69 this morning, up from 61 yesterday. Prices haven’t moved much, but sentiment has already jumped a notch.
3️⃣ Bitcoin’s share of the total market cap is 59.6%, unchanged from this morning—not gaining any more ground at the top.
3. How I read it
$BTC 84149 (+1.3%), $ETH 2570 (+2.6%), $BNB 755 (+0.9%). Compared with 83918 this morning, they’re up just 200 points in half a day.
What I’m doing: nothing. I’ll wait for the next U.S. Treasury update tomorrow and see whether the 30-year stays stuck at 5.60% or gives back some of that move. BNB is still some way off 770, so I’m not buying today.
Are you waiting for the data, or have you already made a move?
There are no new macro events today, so this column is now about the three numbers I’m watching.
1. Why there’s nothing to cover
The U.S. Treasury market is closed, and the latest data still ends on October 9. The Fed’s latest release is still the Survey of Consumer Finances, and the Bank of Japan hasn’t published any new rate statement. China’s loan rates are still at the September 20 levels: 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, unchanged. I’m not going to force a story just for the sake of having one.
2. The three numbers I’m watching
1️⃣ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.24%, still at Friday’s close. The short end is at 4.80%, and the 30-year is stuck at 5.60%. No one’s changed anything over the weekend.
2️⃣ The Fear & Greed Index is at 69 this morning, up from 61 yesterday. Prices haven’t moved much, but sentiment has already jumped a notch.
3️⃣ Bitcoin’s share of the total market cap is 59.6%, unchanged from this morning—not gaining any more ground at the top.
3. How I read it
$BTC 84149 (+1.3%), $ETH 2570 (+2.6%), $BNB 755 (+0.9%). Compared with 83918 this morning, they’re up just 200 points in half a day.
What I’m doing: nothing. I’ll wait for the next U.S. Treasury update tomorrow and see whether the 30-year stays stuck at 5.60% or gives back some of that move. BNB is still some way off 770, so I’m not buying today.
Are you waiting for the data, or have you already made a move?