In the crypto community you could often see this chart, and back in 2021 I looked at it with genuine interest, thinking it might be some kind of cheat code! But after a few years of watching the crypto market and events in the world, I noticed that people often fit this chart to the dates after the fact, giving it a ±1 year leeway)) Why it is outdated in general • The economy has changed dramatically. Back then agriculture and simple commodities dominated. Today it is services, technology, global finance, central banks, fiat money, and active monetary policy. • The Fed, QE, fiscal stimulus, and the central-bank “put” regularly break the old rhythms. Wars! • Cycles have become more flexible and shorter. Policy, liquidity, and institutional flows override the rigid 16–20-year “panics” and “good times” that Benner drew from a limited sample. • Coincidences are often hindsight. Some dates roughly match crises (around 1929, 2008), but many others do not. It is more of an interesting historical illustration than a working forecast. Why it is especially unsuitable for crypto • Crypto has existed only since 2009. It has no 150-year history on which Benner was based, and no link to harvests or industrial commodity cycles. Its own rhythms are different: $BTC halvings, liquidity waves, risk-on/risk-off, regulation, narratives, and institutional adoption (ETFs, etc.). These are not 18–20-year agricultural waves. • Volatility and market structure are completely different: 24/7, global retail + institutions, high correlation with macro liquidity, but not with Benner’s classic commodity cycles. The chart’s “low prices / buy and hold until the boom” does not account for the fact that crypto can drop 70–90% and recover in months or years driven by entirely different factors. Modern cycles are better viewed through liquidity, interest rates, halvings, and macro, not through an 1875 scheme. #BTC