After looking at this chart, as someone who’s spent years watching the order book, my take is pretty straightforward:
A drop from 83k to 55k is technically entirely possible, but what really determines whether the price can fall that far isn’t the chart lines—it’s how much leverage has built up and whether spot buyers are willing to step in. Open interest isn’t extreme right now, and funding rates are still fairly restrained. For a “devastating shakeout” to happen, it would probably first need to break through the layer of long liquidations around 80k and trigger a cascade of liquidations. Otherwise, we’re more likely to see a grinding, high-level consolidation than a straight shot down to 55k.
From a market-making perspective, I’m more focused on two things: first, whether the spread between spot and perpetual futures keeps widening during the drop; and second, whether liquidity at key levels gets eaten up or replenished. Often, when the price falls into a certain zone, the order book actually gets thicker—that’s when real money is stepping in to buy. If it keeps getting thinner as the price drops, that’s when you should be concerned.
If 55k really does come into play, it probably won’t be just a technical pullback; macro liquidity conditions or some event will likely have pushed sentiment to an extreme. By then, many leveraged positions will already be gone, leaving spot holders and prepared capital. I don’t think the upward part of the roadmap after that is far-fetched—the accumulation logic after a four-year cycle is still there, though nobody can say exactly when it will happen.
So my view has always been: use charts like this as a reference, but don’t treat them as precise trading plans. If you do trade, focus on position sizing and exit discipline, not on guessing the bottom. A shakeout really can be devastating for most people, but for those who reduced leverage in advance and kept enough dry powder, it can instead be an opportunity to reposition.
Price predictions can be wrong; position management can’t.
A drop from 83k to 55k is technically entirely possible, but what really determines whether the price can fall that far isn’t the chart lines—it’s how much leverage has built up and whether spot buyers are willing to step in. Open interest isn’t extreme right now, and funding rates are still fairly restrained. For a “devastating shakeout” to happen, it would probably first need to break through the layer of long liquidations around 80k and trigger a cascade of liquidations. Otherwise, we’re more likely to see a grinding, high-level consolidation than a straight shot down to 55k.
From a market-making perspective, I’m more focused on two things: first, whether the spread between spot and perpetual futures keeps widening during the drop; and second, whether liquidity at key levels gets eaten up or replenished. Often, when the price falls into a certain zone, the order book actually gets thicker—that’s when real money is stepping in to buy. If it keeps getting thinner as the price drops, that’s when you should be concerned.
If 55k really does come into play, it probably won’t be just a technical pullback; macro liquidity conditions or some event will likely have pushed sentiment to an extreme. By then, many leveraged positions will already be gone, leaving spot holders and prepared capital. I don’t think the upward part of the roadmap after that is far-fetched—the accumulation logic after a four-year cycle is still there, though nobody can say exactly when it will happen.
So my view has always been: use charts like this as a reference, but don’t treat them as precise trading plans. If you do trade, focus on position sizing and exit discipline, not on guessing the bottom. A shakeout really can be devastating for most people, but for those who reduced leverage in advance and kept enough dry powder, it can instead be an opportunity to reposition.
Price predictions can be wrong; position management can’t.