The Strait of Hormuz is in absolute chaos. A third oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire within 24 hours, and Iran has come right out and said that any ships with their AIS turned off and sailing erratically will be treated as hostile targets. Satellites have also captured a plume of smoke 15–20 kilometers from Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oil field, while 57% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down. It’s hard to see how oil prices don’t rise.
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire,” and then Russian forces bombed a power plant in Kharkiv. He also struck a deal with Putin to import Russian diesel. Lawmakers from both parties say it violates the 2022 ban and are demanding he call it off. Even a screenwriter wouldn’t dare write this plot.
I’m keeping an eye on two things for their impact on crypto:
First, the inflation narrative is back. Surging oil prices + U.S. Treasury yields at a 24-year high + hawkish Fed minutes—Wednesday’s CPI report is the biggest landmine of the week. In this environment, the $BTC inflation-hedge narrative will be back in the spotlight. Short-term volatility could be significant, so those trading futures should be careful with leverage.
Second, $ONDO is quietly making big moves: Private Markets has launched, it was cited in an IMF report, Franklin Templeton has teamed up with Animoca, and Luxembourg plans to issue €1 billion in on-chain government bonds. The more chaotic geopolitics get, the more traditional institutions will look for on-chain access. RWA is worth adding to your watchlist.
In times of turmoil, your position sizing and patience are worth more than any indicator.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #RWA #地缘政治 #宏观经济 #cryptocurrency
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire,” and then Russian forces bombed a power plant in Kharkiv. He also struck a deal with Putin to import Russian diesel. Lawmakers from both parties say it violates the 2022 ban and are demanding he call it off. Even a screenwriter wouldn’t dare write this plot.
I’m keeping an eye on two things for their impact on crypto:
First, the inflation narrative is back. Surging oil prices + U.S. Treasury yields at a 24-year high + hawkish Fed minutes—Wednesday’s CPI report is the biggest landmine of the week. In this environment, the $BTC inflation-hedge narrative will be back in the spotlight. Short-term volatility could be significant, so those trading futures should be careful with leverage.
Second, $ONDO is quietly making big moves: Private Markets has launched, it was cited in an IMF report, Franklin Templeton has teamed up with Animoca, and Luxembourg plans to issue €1 billion in on-chain government bonds. The more chaotic geopolitics get, the more traditional institutions will look for on-chain access. RWA is worth adding to your watchlist.
In times of turmoil, your position sizing and patience are worth more than any indicator.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #RWA #地缘政治 #宏观经济 #cryptocurrency