The bond market has already hiked rates once on the Fed’s behalf
Investors’ cumulative rate-hike bets for eight major economies have been cut from a September peak of 717 basis points to around 539 basis points, down 178 basis points. The U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium has risen to 0.98%, its highest level since 2014.
Long-term yields just won’t come down, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, corporate financing, and AI infrastructure all at once. Financial conditions have tightened on their own, reducing the need for further rate hikes by central banks. Gasoline prices are forecast to rise 9.3%, potentially pushing headline CPI to 0.58%. Once the inflation data comes out, it could easily disrupt rate-cut trades.
In this period of tight liquidity, whether $BTC can break out on its own depends on whether fresh capital is willing to step in at this level. As long as the 10-year yield doesn’t fall, any rebound can only be treated as a short-term trade.
If the 10-year yield doesn’t break below 4%, would you dare to place limit orders to buy here, or would you wait for the CPI numbers?
#比特币 #U.S.Treasuries
$BTC $ETH
Investors’ cumulative rate-hike bets for eight major economies have been cut from a September peak of 717 basis points to around 539 basis points, down 178 basis points. The U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium has risen to 0.98%, its highest level since 2014.
Long-term yields just won’t come down, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, corporate financing, and AI infrastructure all at once. Financial conditions have tightened on their own, reducing the need for further rate hikes by central banks. Gasoline prices are forecast to rise 9.3%, potentially pushing headline CPI to 0.58%. Once the inflation data comes out, it could easily disrupt rate-cut trades.
In this period of tight liquidity, whether $BTC can break out on its own depends on whether fresh capital is willing to step in at this level. As long as the 10-year yield doesn’t fall, any rebound can only be treated as a short-term trade.
If the 10-year yield doesn’t break below 4%, would you dare to place limit orders to buy here, or would you wait for the CPI numbers?
#比特币 #U.S.Treasuries
$BTC $ETH