S rose nearly 30% in a day, but the market may be overestimating the bullish impact of the burn three days from now.
Sonic (S) was around $0.06 on 10/12, up approximately 29% in 24 hours, with trading volume rising significantly.
10/15 is a key date.
S’s official announcement said that around 32.69 million S from the first- and second-quarter airdrops had gone unclaimed, and that any remaining tokens would be burned after the deadline.
The thing is, that figure isn’t as large as it might seem.
Based on a circulating supply of about 3.885 billion tokens, even if all 32.69 million were burned, that would amount to only about 0.84% of the circulating supply.
What’s more, this figure was published in April, so it doesn’t mean that this many tokens are still awaiting a burn.
Another point worth noting is the trading structure.
According to DeFiLlama data, S’s 24-hour perpetual futures volume was about $490 million, compared with around $130 million in spot trading.
Futures trading was much busier than spot trading, but volume doesn’t indicate net buying pressure, nor is it enough on its own to determine whether leverage is excessively crowded.
So what’s most worth questioning about this rally isn’t whether S has a bullish catalyst, but how much of a premium the market has paid for it.
If the actual amount burned on 10/15 is small and spot demand doesn’t hold up, the price could face short-term pressure as enthusiasm for the narrative fades.
Conversely, if continued spot demand and ecosystem activity support further price strength, then this rally will be about more than just burn expectations.
Less than 1% of the circulating supply may be burned, yet the token price has risen nearly 30%. Putting those two figures side by side is what makes this the most worth discussing.
$S#Sonic #Altcoins
📌 BSA-20261012-01
Sonic (S) was around $0.06 on 10/12, up approximately 29% in 24 hours, with trading volume rising significantly.
10/15 is a key date.
S’s official announcement said that around 32.69 million S from the first- and second-quarter airdrops had gone unclaimed, and that any remaining tokens would be burned after the deadline.
The thing is, that figure isn’t as large as it might seem.
Based on a circulating supply of about 3.885 billion tokens, even if all 32.69 million were burned, that would amount to only about 0.84% of the circulating supply.
What’s more, this figure was published in April, so it doesn’t mean that this many tokens are still awaiting a burn.
Another point worth noting is the trading structure.
According to DeFiLlama data, S’s 24-hour perpetual futures volume was about $490 million, compared with around $130 million in spot trading.
Futures trading was much busier than spot trading, but volume doesn’t indicate net buying pressure, nor is it enough on its own to determine whether leverage is excessively crowded.
So what’s most worth questioning about this rally isn’t whether S has a bullish catalyst, but how much of a premium the market has paid for it.
If the actual amount burned on 10/15 is small and spot demand doesn’t hold up, the price could face short-term pressure as enthusiasm for the narrative fades.
Conversely, if continued spot demand and ecosystem activity support further price strength, then this rally will be about more than just burn expectations.
Less than 1% of the circulating supply may be burned, yet the token price has risen nearly 30%. Putting those two figures side by side is what makes this the most worth discussing.
$S#Sonic #Altcoins
📌 BSA-20261012-01