BlockBeats News, October 12: Analyst Murphy said that data shows long-term holders (LTHs) transferred a cumulative total of approximately 32,000 BTC to trading platforms between October 7 and 8. This was the second-largest single-day transfer by LTHs since the sharp drop on February 5 this year, and likely reflects potential selling intent. However, these 32,000 BTC should not all be regarded as active distribution by LTHs.
During the same period, wallets associated with the U.S. government transferred approximately 17,200 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Given that Coinbase Prime is an official custody and trading service provider designated by the U.S. Marshals Service, this transfer does not necessarily indicate a sale; it may also be related to the consolidation of asset custody or the disposition of assets in a case. Excluding this unusual transfer, the remaining approximately 14,800 BTC represents the potential selling pressure that warrants closer attention, coming mainly from long-term holders whose coins have been held for 6–12 months and 3–5 years.
During the transition from a bear market to a bull market, LTHs transferring an average of 2,000–3,000 BTC per day to exchanges is generally within the normal range. When transfers suddenly rise well above the average, it is often accompanied by a special event or bearish market expectations. But “a market downturn combined with LTH distribution” is not necessarily a bad thing, especially during the transition from a bear market to a bull market. Entity-adjusted CDD (coin days destroyed) data shows that whenever the market pulls back and CDD rises sharply, it often means some long-dormant coins are becoming active, with some holders even choosing to exit. In retrospect, although the decline brought short-term selling pressure, it also prompted some less committed holders to sell and their coins to change hands. Potential selling pressure was released in advance, easing resistance to a subsequent rally.
From another perspective, this is also a sign that, as a bull market progresses, long-held coins are gradually being reactivated and turnover is picking up. So there’s no need to be overly concerned about every instance of LTH distribution. What really matters is whether the market can absorb these coins effectively. After all, a bull market can’t consist of buying alone, with no selling. Older coins being released while new capital continues to absorb them is, in itself, part of the market’s process of rediscovering value. Ample turnover of coins is, in fact, an important foundation for a rally to go further.
