Prediction markets traded $8.56 billion in two days. That same weekend, someone bet $19 on who would become the White House’s new press secretary—and stood to win $1,896 👀
📊 First, the volume
• Kalshi + Polymarket set new single-day trading records two days in a row, with a combined $8.56 billion over those two days. Weekly volume also hit a record at $22.2 billion (Bloomberg, citing Dune data)
• NFL and U.S. college football drove most of the volume
• Looking at Kalshi alone, notional trading volume on Saturday was about $3.9 billion, with multi-event combo contracts accounting for over 70%
🔍 Now, the investigation
Kalshi is reviewing several trades: someone correctly bet on the new White House press secretary before the media announced the pick.
• At least 3 bets, with about $173 in total stake and an expected payout of around $9,600
• The earliest bet was $19. In the days before the news broke, the market gave this candidate only about a 1% chance
• In August, the CFTC had just settled with a former White House teleprompter operator over trading on Kalshi. Now a similar issue has surfaced again
A few thoughts:
1️⃣ Sports are driving the volume. With combo contracts making up over 70%, expect more debate over whether regulators should treat them as financial derivatives or sports betting
2️⃣ The biggest risk with political appointment contracts is someone knowing the answer in advance. A candidate with a 1% chance gets picked by a bet of a few dozen dollars—and the other side of that trade is everyone else in the market
3️⃣ For small-money players: you can still compete through research on sports and macro contracts. Best to steer clear of political appointment and news-driven contracts, where the information gap is against you
Do prediction markets seem more like information tools or betting games to you?
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#预测市场 #Polymarket #Kalshi #CryptoMarkets
📊 First, the volume
• Kalshi + Polymarket set new single-day trading records two days in a row, with a combined $8.56 billion over those two days. Weekly volume also hit a record at $22.2 billion (Bloomberg, citing Dune data)
• NFL and U.S. college football drove most of the volume
• Looking at Kalshi alone, notional trading volume on Saturday was about $3.9 billion, with multi-event combo contracts accounting for over 70%
🔍 Now, the investigation
Kalshi is reviewing several trades: someone correctly bet on the new White House press secretary before the media announced the pick.
• At least 3 bets, with about $173 in total stake and an expected payout of around $9,600
• The earliest bet was $19. In the days before the news broke, the market gave this candidate only about a 1% chance
• In August, the CFTC had just settled with a former White House teleprompter operator over trading on Kalshi. Now a similar issue has surfaced again
A few thoughts:
1️⃣ Sports are driving the volume. With combo contracts making up over 70%, expect more debate over whether regulators should treat them as financial derivatives or sports betting
2️⃣ The biggest risk with political appointment contracts is someone knowing the answer in advance. A candidate with a 1% chance gets picked by a bet of a few dozen dollars—and the other side of that trade is everyone else in the market
3️⃣ For small-money players: you can still compete through research on sports and macro contracts. Best to steer clear of political appointment and news-driven contracts, where the information gap is against you
Do prediction markets seem more like information tools or betting games to you?
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#预测市场 #Polymarket #Kalshi #CryptoMarkets