The first condition I laid out last week was: BTC needs to reclaim 82,787 on a daily close. Friday, 10/9, closed at 82,636—just shy of the level. The next two daily candles made up the difference over the weekend: 10/10 closed at 82,988 and 10/11 at 83,773 (Binance; daily close is 08:00 (UTC+8) / 00:00 UTC). The 80,393 low hasn't been retested.
The second step hasn't happened yet. The weekend high was 84,199, still some distance from 84,972, so it's too early to call this a false breakdown.
Volume is the caveat. Daily trading volume on 10/10 and 10/11 was about 7,400 and 7,000 BTC, respectively—only around a third of the roughly 21,000 BTC traded on each of the sharp-drop days, 10/7 and 10/8. Weekends are usually quiet, so this rebound needs confirmation from weekday flows.
The ETF picture shows only that the bleeding has stopped:
・BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of +$21.1 million on 10/9 (IBIT +$22.4 million), ending two consecutive days of outflows, though the two prior days totaled −$729 million
・ETH spot ETFs saw another −$56.1 million on 10/9, marking nine consecutive trading days of net outflows since 9/29, totaling about −$697 million
・ETH/BTC stayed between 0.0301 and 0.0304 over the weekend, showing no strength relative to BTC
My take (inference): Price has cleared the first hurdle, but the flow picture hasn't turned around yet. Until ETFs see several consecutive days of inflows, 84,972 looks more like resistance than a target.
What to watch next:
1. A daily close above 84,972 would make a false breakdown more plausible
2. A daily close back below 82,787 would mean the weekend rebound has failed
3. A break below 80,393 would set a new low for this move
4. U.S. September CPI on 10/14 at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC
Would you wait for several consecutive days of ETF inflows before trusting this rebound, or is a daily close above 84,972 enough?
At the time of writing, BTC was around 83,900 / ETH around 2,544, ETH/BTC 0.0303 (Binance).
$BTC $ETH | Sources: Binance candlesticks, Farside, BLS | Not investment advice
The second step hasn't happened yet. The weekend high was 84,199, still some distance from 84,972, so it's too early to call this a false breakdown.
Volume is the caveat. Daily trading volume on 10/10 and 10/11 was about 7,400 and 7,000 BTC, respectively—only around a third of the roughly 21,000 BTC traded on each of the sharp-drop days, 10/7 and 10/8. Weekends are usually quiet, so this rebound needs confirmation from weekday flows.
The ETF picture shows only that the bleeding has stopped:
・BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of +$21.1 million on 10/9 (IBIT +$22.4 million), ending two consecutive days of outflows, though the two prior days totaled −$729 million
・ETH spot ETFs saw another −$56.1 million on 10/9, marking nine consecutive trading days of net outflows since 9/29, totaling about −$697 million
・ETH/BTC stayed between 0.0301 and 0.0304 over the weekend, showing no strength relative to BTC
My take (inference): Price has cleared the first hurdle, but the flow picture hasn't turned around yet. Until ETFs see several consecutive days of inflows, 84,972 looks more like resistance than a target.
What to watch next:
1. A daily close above 84,972 would make a false breakdown more plausible
2. A daily close back below 82,787 would mean the weekend rebound has failed
3. A break below 80,393 would set a new low for this move
4. U.S. September CPI on 10/14 at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC
Would you wait for several consecutive days of ETF inflows before trusting this rebound, or is a daily close above 84,972 enough?
At the time of writing, BTC was around 83,900 / ETH around 2,544, ETH/BTC 0.0303 (Binance).
$BTC $ETH | Sources: Binance candlesticks, Farside, BLS | Not investment advice