Key takeaways:
Today, focus on oil price movements following its reversal, shifts in interest rate expectations, and whether AI industry growth can translate into market performance. Domestically, also watch liquidity conditions and progress in building computing capacity.
【Today's Key Themes】
Second key theme: Expectations of tighter monetary policy are influencing risk appetite. Market pricing of a year-end Fed rate hike and pressure from South Korean bond yields are important variables to watch for growth stocks and financing costs.
Third key theme: AI industry progress and stock performance are diverging. South Korean semiconductor exports are strong, yet chip stocks have fallen sharply. Progress on expanding advanced packaging capacity and AI-related acquisition talks still needs to be monitored for concrete results.
Fourth theme: Monitor domestic liquidity and the market’s ability to absorb supply. The expiration of 300 billion yuan in reverse repos and a decline in margin financing balances offer clues for assessing A-share trading activity and sector performance.
Fifth theme: Physical supply and infrastructure developments are unfolding in parallel. Disruptions to copper mine production, changes in agricultural supply expectations, and the expansion of domestic intelligent computing centers point to areas to watch in resource supply and computing infrastructure, respectively.
【U.S. Stocks】
U.S. stocks’ three major indexes all closed higher last Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83% to 51,654.95; the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to 7,811.51; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.64% to 27,366.17. U.S. stock index futures opened slightly higher on Monday.
U.S. stock markets are open as usual today. CME U.S. Treasury futures are trading normally, while the U.S. cash bond market is closed for the entire day. European equity futures also rose in early trading: Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX futures were both up 0.4%, while the U.K. FTSE futures gained 0.3%.
【Macro】
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% at the start of trading to 102.3, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.25% against the U.S. dollar to below 0.56.
CME’s FedWatch tool shows an 81.7% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October and an 18.3% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. By December, the probabilities of no change, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike are 15.8%, 69.5% and 14.7%, respectively. Market pricing for year-end rates still leans toward tighter policy.
Today’s key release is China’s September M2 money supply growth. The IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings begin today in Bangkok and run through October 18. The Toronto Stock Exchange is closed today.
The U.K. Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that the government needs to raise 35 billion pounds to deliver on its spending plans. Inflation’s squeeze on public spending could increase pressure for fiscal adjustments. New Zealand’s governing party says its current priorities are reducing debt and improving the fiscal balance, and that now is not the time for tax cuts.
【AI Memory Supply Chain】
South Korea’s semiconductor export growth contrasts with declines in chip stocks. Semiconductor exports rose 170.9% year over year from October 1 to 10, but as of 08:51, SK Hynix was down 3.2% and Samsung Electronics had fallen 1.9%. The strength in short-term export data has yet to support share prices in early trading.
Taiwanese media report that GlobalFoundries and TSMC have signed a $2 billion manufacturing agreement, with plans to begin mass production of critical CoWoS silicon interposers in the U.S. in the first half of 2028. Amkor’s Arizona plant is scheduled to begin operations in early 2028. Industry sources expect TSMC’s first advanced packaging plant in Arizona to start operating as early as the first half of 2028; actual production progress remains to be monitored.
Areas to watch in A-shares include computing chips, memory, advanced packaging, semiconductor equipment and materials, PCBs and liquid cooling. China Merchants Securities links a recovery in the technology sector to confirmation that 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have turned lower; this remains a condition to be verified.
【Technology Industry】
The Wall Street Journal reports that Amazon is in talks to acquire AI startup Decart for about $7 billion. Nvidia is also reportedly in talks to acquire U.S. AI startup Reflection AI. Both deals are still at the discussion stage.
China Mobile’s Hohhot Intelligent Computing Center expansion project has been completed, with a contract value of 2.7 billion yuan and total IT power capacity of 120 MW. Once operational, the project will provide total computing capacity of 20,100P, including 16,700P of intelligent computing. 90% of its capacity will serve the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and green electricity will account for 88% of its power supply. Areas to watch in A-shares include computing infrastructure, power supply, liquid cooling and data center supporting services.
The U.S. International Trade Commission has launched a Section 337 investigation into Foxconn Industrial Internet and its subsidiary, concerning patents on “vertical power delivery systems.” Luxshare Precision and Foxconn Industrial Internet have responded to the investigation. A subsidiary of Dongbai Group plans to acquire a 52.67% stake in Kua Ling Optoelectronics for 316 million yuan, entering the optical chip sector. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued a regulatory work letter to Dongbai Group. Yuexin Semiconductor plans to list on the ChiNext board on October 13 at an offering price of 12.01 yuan per share.
IDC data show that global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year in the third quarter, highlighting the different paces of end-market demand and AI industry expansion.
The U.K.’s Daily Telegraph reports that the U.S. has adjusted its position on AI model safety testing, allowing developers to provide the U.K. government with early access to models before release. This creates more scope for cross-border cooperation on AI safety testing.
【Crude Oil】
Crude oil prices reversed sharply in early trading. WTI and Brent opened about 0.3% higher at $91.28 and $103.06 per barrel, respectively. WTI briefly rose 1% to $91.88 per barrel, while Brent touched $103.70. By 08:28, WTI had fallen below $90 per barrel, down 1.07% on the day; Brent was down 1% at $101.71 per barrel.
【Precious Metals】
Spot gold opened slightly lower on Monday at $4,193 per ounce, then recovered to touch $4,200 at 08:10, up 0.13% on the day.
Spot silver rose from $60.85 per ounce in early trading to $61.43 at 08:23, extending its daily gain to 1%. Both gold and silver were stronger than at the open, with silver posting the larger gain.
【Domestic Indicators】
A 300 billion yuan, 14-day reverse repo matures today; attention should be paid to the central bank’s operations and liquidity conditions. As of October 9, the combined margin financing balance on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges was 2,521.884 billion yuan, down 14.581 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
A-share benchmarks edged higher last Friday: the Shanghai Composite rose 0.05% to 3,813.79, the Shenzhen Component gained 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 0.22%. Hong Kong stocks posted larger gains, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.79% at 24,211.35 and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.06% at 4,197.84. Tencent plans an international offering of notes to certain professional investors.
In shipping, as of October 9, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 3,664.11 points, up 1.81 points from the previous reading. CITIC Securities believes that growing cargo volumes, limited vessel capacity and changes in shipping routes are driving tanker freight rates higher. Areas to watch in A-shares include oil shipping, refined-product transportation and related energy supply chains, while tracking changes in shipping safety and freight rates.
In commodities, iron ore inventories at 45 major Chinese ports totaled 164.8022 million tonnes, up 693,800 tonnes from the previous week, while average daily cargo clearance fell to 3.411 million tonnes. Some steel mills in Xingtai cut coke prices from midnight today, reducing wet-quenched coke by 100 yuan per tonne and dry-quenched coke by 110 yuan per tonne.
Strikes at Chilean copper mines, adverse weather and mine accidents have increased production disruptions, keeping copper prices near historic highs. China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs cut its forecast for the country’s 2026/27 soybean output by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expects crude palm oil production to reach 51.7 million tonnes in 2027, below this year’s projected 53.7 million tonnes. China’s 2027 sugar import tariff-rate quota totals 1.945 million tonnes, 70% of which is allocated to state trading.
Huanggang Port officially opened at 06:30 today, providing 24-hour clearance services for travelers and passenger vehicles. Statements on China-EU trade policy continue to emphasize resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation, and maintaining stable industrial and supply chains.
【Risk Disclosure】
Interest-rate probabilities reflect market pricing, and South Korea’s export data for the first ten days of the month cannot be taken as a direct indicator of full-month performance. AI acquisition talks, expectations for overseas advanced packaging production to begin, and patent investigations are all subject to further developments. Related A-share industries are areas to watch only; ongoing validation against fund flows, orders, earnings and actual progress is needed.
\u003ct-128/\u003e \u003ct-130/\u003e \u003ct-132/\u003e \u003ct-134/\u003e #Technology Industry
For research and educational purposes only; this does not constitute investment advice.