CoinDesk’s data says it all: 2026 has already seen 10 unusually large trading days—more frequently than in 2018—while Bitcoin’s volatility has simultaneously fallen to a multi-year low. Put these two figures on the same chart, and the contradiction speaks for itself.
The flash crash on October 10, 2025 wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions. A year later, the order books for Bitcoin and Ethereum are deeper than they were before the crash, but liquidity in altcoins is still draining away, and spot trading volume remains far below its October 2025 peak. Depth is back; breadth isn’t.
My view is straightforward: low volatility is an illusion built up by institutionalization, while the growing frequency of extreme market moves is the real risk. Deep order books don’t mean tail risk is low—they just make things look calm most of the time.
$BTC $ETH
The flash crash on October 10, 2025 wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions. A year later, the order books for Bitcoin and Ethereum are deeper than they were before the crash, but liquidity in altcoins is still draining away, and spot trading volume remains far below its October 2025 peak. Depth is back; breadth isn’t.
My view is straightforward: low volatility is an illusion built up by institutionalization, while the growing frequency of extreme market moves is the real risk. Deep order books don’t mean tail risk is low—they just make things look calm most of the time.
$BTC $ETH