$BTC #Bitcoin Halving
Recently, people in the group have been talking about the halving cycle again. Quite a few are comparing historical cycle charts and saying that, at this point, the market should be heading into a one-way trend. Personally, I think history can be a useful reference, but we shouldn’t expect things to follow the same script exactly.
The bullish case makes sense: after the halving, the supply is cut in half, easing inflationary pressure over the long term, while institutional money is gradually coming in. Based on previous cycles, there’s probably a major rally ahead. But there’s a case for caution, too. Everyone has picked apart these past cycles, and anyone who wanted to get in early has probably already done so. Expectations may already be fully priced in. On top of that, the macro environment is completely different from previous cycles—interest rates, geopolitics, and other factors are all changing. Who knows whether history will simply repeat itself?
My personal view is that, at this point, both the bullish and bearish arguments hold water. There’s no need to take sides and insist that prices must go up or down. We can just take it one step at a time. What do you think—will this halving cycle follow the same script as the previous ones? Let’s talk in the comments.
Recently, people in the group have been talking about the halving cycle again. Quite a few are comparing historical cycle charts and saying that, at this point, the market should be heading into a one-way trend. Personally, I think history can be a useful reference, but we shouldn’t expect things to follow the same script exactly.
The bullish case makes sense: after the halving, the supply is cut in half, easing inflationary pressure over the long term, while institutional money is gradually coming in. Based on previous cycles, there’s probably a major rally ahead. But there’s a case for caution, too. Everyone has picked apart these past cycles, and anyone who wanted to get in early has probably already done so. Expectations may already be fully priced in. On top of that, the macro environment is completely different from previous cycles—interest rates, geopolitics, and other factors are all changing. Who knows whether history will simply repeat itself?
My personal view is that, at this point, both the bullish and bearish arguments hold water. There’s no need to take sides and insist that prices must go up or down. We can just take it one step at a time. What do you think—will this halving cycle follow the same script as the previous ones? Let’s talk in the comments.