Ironically, one war is being brought to an end to contain another, and this could increase the risk of yet another war!
Trump announced directly on his social media that a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine had been reached. His main goal in brokering peace talks between Russia and Ukraine was to get Russia to release enough crude oil to push down Brent prices, thereby weakening Iran’s leverage in negotiations.
The Russia-Ukraine war, which has lasted four years and seven months, has seen Trump work hard to mediate and Zelensky try to compromise. Yet the core purpose is apparently to contain another geopolitical adversary.
So far, Zelensky has also made it clear that if Russia agrees to a ceasefire, he will hold elections in Ukraine. This is an extremely risky choice for Zelensky: losing would mean being held to account—unless Trump gives him sufficient guarantees of protection.
Why could this move further increase the risk of conflict between the US and Iran?
Iran has made it clear that it will not abandon its nuclear technology under external pressure. Iran has also officially judged the US response to its seven demands to be inadequate, raising the bar for a return to US-Iran negotiations. Iran remains firm in its position.
So, the US is trying to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine to get Russia to release more crude oil and bring down prices, giving Washington greater leverage at the US-Iran negotiating table. But Iran’s defiant stance is bound to make the situation even worse.
The fog of war remains dense and complicated. Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran are like the two sides of a balance: a drop in the risk of war on one side means a greater risk of military conflict on the other—unless either Iran or the US chooses to make unilateral concessions. How likely is that? Not very.
Looks like we’re in for another week of being battered by US-Iran tensions and energy prices. That’s the most frustrating part!
P.S. Don’t rush to interpret Trump’s announcement of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire as cause for optimism. It could be a case of celebrating too soon; the next thing to watch is Russia’s response!#Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT
Trump announced directly on his social media that a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine had been reached. His main goal in brokering peace talks between Russia and Ukraine was to get Russia to release enough crude oil to push down Brent prices, thereby weakening Iran’s leverage in negotiations.
The Russia-Ukraine war, which has lasted four years and seven months, has seen Trump work hard to mediate and Zelensky try to compromise. Yet the core purpose is apparently to contain another geopolitical adversary.
So far, Zelensky has also made it clear that if Russia agrees to a ceasefire, he will hold elections in Ukraine. This is an extremely risky choice for Zelensky: losing would mean being held to account—unless Trump gives him sufficient guarantees of protection.
Why could this move further increase the risk of conflict between the US and Iran?
Iran has made it clear that it will not abandon its nuclear technology under external pressure. Iran has also officially judged the US response to its seven demands to be inadequate, raising the bar for a return to US-Iran negotiations. Iran remains firm in its position.
So, the US is trying to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine to get Russia to release more crude oil and bring down prices, giving Washington greater leverage at the US-Iran negotiating table. But Iran’s defiant stance is bound to make the situation even worse.
The fog of war remains dense and complicated. Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran are like the two sides of a balance: a drop in the risk of war on one side means a greater risk of military conflict on the other—unless either Iran or the US chooses to make unilateral concessions. How likely is that? Not very.
Looks like we’re in for another week of being battered by US-Iran tensions and energy prices. That’s the most frustrating part!
P.S. Don’t rush to interpret Trump’s announcement of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire as cause for optimism. It could be a case of celebrating too soon; the next thing to watch is Russia’s response!#Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT