Guys, BTC has climbed back to 83.8K tonight, up nearly 1% in 24 hours. It looks like a recovery, but this week has been a wild ride.
At the start of the week, it was hovering around 87K, then plunged all the way to 80.3K. A whopping $2.4 billion in positions were liquidated over the week, more than 85% of them longs, with tens of thousands of people liquidated in a single day. A few friends of mine who trade futures were completely wiped out. Who can handle this kind of market?
The reasons for the drop aren’t complicated: US Treasury yields climbed above 5.3%, oil broke through $101, and risk assets across the board came under pressure. Money has also been flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs: Wednesday saw $485 million in net outflows, the largest single-day outflow since June 25. On-chain data also showed short-term holders sending 55,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss. The selling pressure is very real.
That said, this looks more like a leverage washout than capitulation. Futures open interest has barely moved, holding steady around $150 billion. Q3 just gained 43%, and ETFs saw $2.6 billion in net inflows in September. The underlying structure hasn’t broken down.
Now it all comes down to the 83K level. That’s the average cost basis for ETF buyers and the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, the next target is 87K. If it doesn’t, watch 80K, then 77K below that, where there’s strong support—it’s around the cost basis for most holders. Prediction markets are split too: more than 60% think BTC will dip below 80K in October, but 49% believe it can rally back to 87.5K by month-end.
Personally, I’m keeping my position small and waiting to see which way it goes. Going all-in on a directional bet at these levels could leave you getting hit either way. Keep your position size down—don’t get liquidated.
Do you think 83K is the bottom, or just a stop along the way? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC #比特币 #Futures
At the start of the week, it was hovering around 87K, then plunged all the way to 80.3K. A whopping $2.4 billion in positions were liquidated over the week, more than 85% of them longs, with tens of thousands of people liquidated in a single day. A few friends of mine who trade futures were completely wiped out. Who can handle this kind of market?
The reasons for the drop aren’t complicated: US Treasury yields climbed above 5.3%, oil broke through $101, and risk assets across the board came under pressure. Money has also been flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs: Wednesday saw $485 million in net outflows, the largest single-day outflow since June 25. On-chain data also showed short-term holders sending 55,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss. The selling pressure is very real.
That said, this looks more like a leverage washout than capitulation. Futures open interest has barely moved, holding steady around $150 billion. Q3 just gained 43%, and ETFs saw $2.6 billion in net inflows in September. The underlying structure hasn’t broken down.
Now it all comes down to the 83K level. That’s the average cost basis for ETF buyers and the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, the next target is 87K. If it doesn’t, watch 80K, then 77K below that, where there’s strong support—it’s around the cost basis for most holders. Prediction markets are split too: more than 60% think BTC will dip below 80K in October, but 49% believe it can rally back to 87.5K by month-end.
Personally, I’m keeping my position small and waiting to see which way it goes. Going all-in on a directional bet at these levels could leave you getting hit either way. Keep your position size down—don’t get liquidated.
Do you think 83K is the bottom, or just a stop along the way? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC #比特币 #Futures