โ หหห๐ฅหหห KALSHI AND POLYMARKET PUT FLรVIO AT 88% โ ๐ฑ๐๐ ๐๐ท๐ฐ๐ ๐ณ๐พ๐ด๐ ๐๐ท๐ธ๐ ๐๐ด๐ฐ๐ป๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐ด๐ฐ๐ฝโ๐ค
There are 14 days left until the second round of Brazilโs presidential election.
On Sunday morning (11), two major prediction markets showedโคต๏ธ
โถ KALSHI
โฌ๏ธFlรกvio Bolsonaro ยป 88%
๐ปLula ยป 13%
โถ POLYMARKET
โฌ๏ธFlรกvio Bolsonaro ยป 88%
๐ปLula ยป 12%
On Polymarket, the presidential market had already accumulated around US$180 million in volume; on Kalshi, approximately US$8.84 million.
But noteโคต๏ธ
โ ๏ธ 88% DOES NOT MEAN 88% OF VOTERS
Prediction markets trade contracts. The price of these contracts is interpreted as a probability assigned by participants to the final outcome, and it can change rapidly up until the election.
Polls measure something else.
โข The October 8 Datafolha poll recorded 49% to 45% in total votes, within a margin of error of 2 points; among valid votes, 52% to 48%. The Ipespe poll released on October 10 showed 49% to 44% in total votes, with a margin of error of 2.6 points.
In other wordsโคต๏ธ
POLL = VOTING INTENTION
POLYMARKET/KALSHI = PRICE OF A TRADED PROBABILITY
They are different measures.
๐ฌThe runoff takes place on OCTOBER 25.
WHY ARE PREDICTION MARKETS SO FAR OFF FROM THE POLLS?
.....................................โ๐ $AAPLB ๐โ.......................................
#Eleicoes2026 #Polymarket #brasil
There are 14 days left until the second round of Brazilโs presidential election.
On Sunday morning (11), two major prediction markets showedโคต๏ธ
โถ KALSHI
โฌ๏ธFlรกvio Bolsonaro ยป 88%
๐ปLula ยป 13%
โถ POLYMARKET
โฌ๏ธFlรกvio Bolsonaro ยป 88%
๐ปLula ยป 12%
On Polymarket, the presidential market had already accumulated around US$180 million in volume; on Kalshi, approximately US$8.84 million.
But noteโคต๏ธ
โ ๏ธ 88% DOES NOT MEAN 88% OF VOTERS
Prediction markets trade contracts. The price of these contracts is interpreted as a probability assigned by participants to the final outcome, and it can change rapidly up until the election.
Polls measure something else.
โข The October 8 Datafolha poll recorded 49% to 45% in total votes, within a margin of error of 2 points; among valid votes, 52% to 48%. The Ipespe poll released on October 10 showed 49% to 44% in total votes, with a margin of error of 2.6 points.
In other wordsโคต๏ธ
POLL = VOTING INTENTION
POLYMARKET/KALSHI = PRICE OF A TRADED PROBABILITY
They are different measures.
๐ฌThe runoff takes place on OCTOBER 25.
WHY ARE PREDICTION MARKETS SO FAR OFF FROM THE POLLS?
.....................................โ๐ $AAPLB ๐โ.......................................
#Eleicoes2026 #Polymarket #brasil