🔥On-chain signals are in! CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shares his latest assessment of Bitcoin’s market outlook.
He says BTC’s current price action looks very similar to the consolidation pattern seen from late 2025 to early 2026. The market has been fluctuating around the capital-weighted cost basis, with $80,500 potentially serving as a key short-term support level.
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Unlike the ordinary realized price, the capital-weighted cost basis calculates holders’ cost basis by weighting it according to the amount of capital invested, offering a more accurate reflection of the average entry price of large investors. The market is now right at the break-even point for all investors, and growing disagreement between bulls and bears is likely to make trading more active going forward.

That said, it’s important to stay objective: $80,500 is currently only a theoretical support level and has yet to be confirmed by price action. Whether the market continues consolidating or breaks into a directional trend will ultimately depend on how prices move from here.