Daily update

After BTC wicked down to 80,393 on Friday and retested the level, it didn’t fall any further but instead staged a rebound. This can currently be viewed as the second 1-hour rebound leg. Once it ends, we expect another 1-hour decline, which could take price below 80,000.

Overall, the daily-chart trend is downward. We expect choppy declines through around the end of the month or early November. Wait patiently for a daily-chart corrective structure to take shape before considering a long position to catch the next daily rebound.

Mid- to short-term trend direction

Main direction on the 4-hour chart: In the short term, this is the first 4-hour decline. Watch the 76,000–75,000 range for a retest. After that, we expect a second 4-hour rebound followed by a third 4-hour decline.

1h trend: The current 1h rebound is approaching the area around 84,000.

BTC short-term outlook

Because market conditions change rapidly in the short term, this article can only offer a forecast based on market movements at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market changes; this is for reference only.

1H:

1) The second 1h rebound shown in the chart above is currently underway. Watch the area around 84,000 or the 84,000–85,000 range for this rebound.

2) After this 1h rebound is complete, a third 1h down leg is expected. Watch the strength of this third down leg. If it can fall below 77,500, there may then be a fourth 1h rebound and a fifth 1h down leg.

3) The first 4h down leg currently underway would normally be expected to reach around 75,000 under typical conditions.

15M:

1) The 1h rebound that started at 80,393 has an internal aAb structure. Over the weekend, it formed a 15m-level consolidation range between 82,500 and 83,200.

2) The 15m rebound in the consolidation's exit leg should now be underway, and may have a chance to retest the area around 84,000 or the 84,000–85,000 range.

3) A renewed drop below 82,600 would confirm that the 1h rebound has ended and that the next 1h down leg has begun.

ETH

1) ETH is also making a 1h rebound in the short term. Under normal conditions, this rebound may still have a chance to reach the area around 2,550 or higher.

2) As long as the 1h rebound fails to break above 2,638, another 1h down leg should follow and continue lower. A renewed drop below 2,480 would indicate that the 1h rebound has ended.

3) For ETH's next 1h down leg, watch to see whether it breaks below 2,350.

4) The overall daily downtrend would normally be expected to reach around 2,200, or the 2,000–2,200 range.