【【Tonight’s Trading Plan】BTC Is Hugging Resistance: Two Paths】
Sunday evening, $BTC is slowly climbing right along the resistance zone, $ETH is stuck at the first resistance after its decline, and the hottest $STRK has doubled in two days and is still surging. One idea for all three coins tonight: wait for a bounce to short the large caps; don’t chase the hot coin—wait for a pullback. (Prices are Binance spot prices as of 10-11 20:04.)
1️⃣ BTC: 83,197, just one step away from the resistance zone
My view is to lean bearish for now; a bounce toward around 83.5k would be an opportunity for bears.
Evidence one: On the 4-hour chart, both highs and lows are moving lower. The resistance trendline overhead is currently around 86,048.
Evidence two: Turnover across the last 10 candlesticks was only 0.36 times the average of the previous 30. Nobody is chasing this rebound.
Evidence three: The strong resistance zone at 83,788–83,988 overlaps with Fib 0.5 at 83,807 and MA99 at 84,087.
Also, according to Farside, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw total net outflows of around $680 million last week (10/5–10/9), only turning slightly positive on Friday.
Scenario one (primary): Consider placing a small short between 83,429–83,629, with a stop-loss at 84,128, first target at 82,563, and second target at 80,494.
Scenario two (alternative): If price drops directly to around 80.5k, consider placing a long, with a stop-loss at 80,000 and an initial target of 82,563.
Invalidation: If a 4-hour candle closes above 84,128, the bearish thesis is wrong; exit the position.
2️⃣ ETH: 2,508, rebound on declining volume, drop on rising volume
Conclusion: Weaker than BTC, with resistance right overhead.
The daily RSI is just 28.6. Oversold does not mean a bottom is in. Turnover across the last 10 4-hour candles was only 0.40 times the earlier level. The long/short account ratio for futures is 2.95, meaning there are still nearly three times as many longs as shorts, with plenty of long positions’ stop-loss orders below.
Scenario one (primary): Consider placing a small short between 2,516–2,523, with a stop-loss at 2,538 and a first target at 2,406.
Scenario two (alternative): If price holds above 2,538 on rising volume, don’t short. Wait and reassess around 2,632–2,640 overhead, where Fib 0.618 and MA99 overlap.
Invalidation: If a 4-hour candle closes above 2,538, the short thesis is wrong.
3️⃣ STRK: 0.1155, the hottest coin in the market today
Conclusion: The structure is bullish, but I won’t chase it; I’ll only wait for a pullback.
Binance spot is up 62.39% over 24 hours, and futures turnover is around 1.37 billion U, third-highest in the market. On the news front, according to Crypto Times, Starknet said on October 8 that it was considering transitioning to an L1, with the goal of building a quantum-resistant network by 2027, though no final decision has been made.
There’s also a clear risk: according to Finwire, around 127 million STRK tokens will be unlocked on October 15.
Pullback levels to watch: Fib 0.382 at 0.0913 and 0.5 at 0.0813; the deep support zone calculated by the program is 0.0585–0.0632, with a stop-loss at 0.0537.
Invalidation: If price breaks below 0.0813 on rising volume and fails to recover, this rally is likely over; I won’t buy the dip.
4️⃣ Key times to watch this week (Beijing time)
U.S. markets are closed tonight, Sunday, and there’s no macroeconomic data.
Monday at 21:30: U.S. markets open; bond markets are closed for Columbus Day.
Tuesday evening: Major banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi begin reporting third-quarter results.
Wednesday at 20:30: U.S. September CPI—the biggest potential source of volatility this week.
Will BTC test 83.5k first tonight, or return to 82.5k first?
Sources: Farside, Crypto Times, Finwire, Binance
$BTC $ETH $STRK #比特币 #Technical Analysis
#Binance Square
⚠️ The above is a compilation of information and personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR.
Sunday evening, $BTC is slowly climbing right along the resistance zone, $ETH is stuck at the first resistance after its decline, and the hottest $STRK has doubled in two days and is still surging. One idea for all three coins tonight: wait for a bounce to short the large caps; don’t chase the hot coin—wait for a pullback. (Prices are Binance spot prices as of 10-11 20:04.)
1️⃣ BTC: 83,197, just one step away from the resistance zone
My view is to lean bearish for now; a bounce toward around 83.5k would be an opportunity for bears.
Evidence one: On the 4-hour chart, both highs and lows are moving lower. The resistance trendline overhead is currently around 86,048.
Evidence two: Turnover across the last 10 candlesticks was only 0.36 times the average of the previous 30. Nobody is chasing this rebound.
Evidence three: The strong resistance zone at 83,788–83,988 overlaps with Fib 0.5 at 83,807 and MA99 at 84,087.
Also, according to Farside, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw total net outflows of around $680 million last week (10/5–10/9), only turning slightly positive on Friday.
Scenario one (primary): Consider placing a small short between 83,429–83,629, with a stop-loss at 84,128, first target at 82,563, and second target at 80,494.
Scenario two (alternative): If price drops directly to around 80.5k, consider placing a long, with a stop-loss at 80,000 and an initial target of 82,563.
Invalidation: If a 4-hour candle closes above 84,128, the bearish thesis is wrong; exit the position.
2️⃣ ETH: 2,508, rebound on declining volume, drop on rising volume
Conclusion: Weaker than BTC, with resistance right overhead.
The daily RSI is just 28.6. Oversold does not mean a bottom is in. Turnover across the last 10 4-hour candles was only 0.40 times the earlier level. The long/short account ratio for futures is 2.95, meaning there are still nearly three times as many longs as shorts, with plenty of long positions’ stop-loss orders below.
Scenario one (primary): Consider placing a small short between 2,516–2,523, with a stop-loss at 2,538 and a first target at 2,406.
Scenario two (alternative): If price holds above 2,538 on rising volume, don’t short. Wait and reassess around 2,632–2,640 overhead, where Fib 0.618 and MA99 overlap.
Invalidation: If a 4-hour candle closes above 2,538, the short thesis is wrong.
3️⃣ STRK: 0.1155, the hottest coin in the market today
Conclusion: The structure is bullish, but I won’t chase it; I’ll only wait for a pullback.
Binance spot is up 62.39% over 24 hours, and futures turnover is around 1.37 billion U, third-highest in the market. On the news front, according to Crypto Times, Starknet said on October 8 that it was considering transitioning to an L1, with the goal of building a quantum-resistant network by 2027, though no final decision has been made.
There’s also a clear risk: according to Finwire, around 127 million STRK tokens will be unlocked on October 15.
Pullback levels to watch: Fib 0.382 at 0.0913 and 0.5 at 0.0813; the deep support zone calculated by the program is 0.0585–0.0632, with a stop-loss at 0.0537.
Invalidation: If price breaks below 0.0813 on rising volume and fails to recover, this rally is likely over; I won’t buy the dip.
4️⃣ Key times to watch this week (Beijing time)
U.S. markets are closed tonight, Sunday, and there’s no macroeconomic data.
Monday at 21:30: U.S. markets open; bond markets are closed for Columbus Day.
Tuesday evening: Major banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi begin reporting third-quarter results.
Wednesday at 20:30: U.S. September CPI—the biggest potential source of volatility this week.
Will BTC test 83.5k first tonight, or return to 82.5k first?
Sources: Farside, Crypto Times, Finwire, Binance
$BTC $ETH $STRK #比特币 #Technical Analysis
#Binance Square
⚠️ The above is a compilation of information and personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR.