Ethereum is now like it’s trapped in a tiny box: it can’t get above 2,520 or break below 2,470.
In this kind of extremely low-volume dead zone, the biggest question is: should you still force a trade in the middle of the range?
My view is simple: without volume, there’s no real breakout.
Rather than getting chopped up in the middle, it’s better to wait until it reaches the ceiling, then consider shorting it for a move.
A few days ago, my junior colleague came by with President Song.
I came to pick up some blood sugar medication for his mother.
I looked through the medical records, and there’s a Chinese patent medicine called Jinlida in there.
I said, just go buy the original brand-name drug on JD.com and switch to Januvia.
He asked, “Is it expensive? Can I get reimbursed?”
I said, “You make tens of thousands a day trading stocks. What’s this little bit of money to you?”
I told him to place the order right away and stop telling me we could look into it later.
The year before last, he said he had to fly at least once. President Song and I paid for his ticket, but he still hasn’t taken that flight.
He said, “I’m too busy.”
I said, “So you’ve been busy trading stocks?”
He said, “I’m refining my model. It’s insanely good now.”
I asked, “How much have you made this year?”
He said, “25,000.”
I said, “The market’s this good—why are you doing so badly?”
He said, “I couldn’t help myself. It’s mostly super-short-term trades. I chase in and it drops; I switch to another sector and chase there, and it drops again.”
At lunch, the young woman he’d recently started seeing treated us. As we chatted, we found out they were already living together.
The young woman has two homes: one in the county town and one in a township.
My junior colleague gave up his rental and moved straight into the place the young woman had in her county town.
As they chatted, the conversation turned to getting married and buying a home, and the two of them bickered a little.
My junior colleague said his goal this year was to make good money and buy a decent home. He said that was a man’s basic dignity.
The young woman didn’t mince words. She said they couldn’t buy now because they’d lose money on a house, and since they already had a place, it didn’t matter whether they got married before or after buying one.
Then she started criticizing him: cooped up at home all day, smoking behind closed doors, never going out to meet people—wasting all his talent.
My junior colleague insisted he didn’t smoke regularly—only when he needed to think.
You can tell from these back-and-forths that the young woman has the upper hand by far. My junior colleague can’t stand up for himself at all.
What can you do? You’ve got nothing going for you.
It’s been 20 years since he graduated, and he rarely socializes. He has some personality issues.
He’s had his moments of glory—at one point his holdings were worth 1.6 million—but now he’s even sold that little BYD electric car that wouldn’t run.
But judging by his social media posts, he’s an absolute stock-market guru, analyzing the market and posting charts every day.
The young woman was probably taken in by his social media posts. Plus, she’s getting older and needs a man around the house to keep up appearances.
With a little polish, my junior colleague could pass for a professional investor with a bachelor’s degree. He doesn’t cheat or hit women, and he’d make do as long as he had a roof over his head.
Economic foundations determine everything.
When you’re broke and living in someone else’s house, all that talk about dignity and buying a home is just talk.
The current ETH market is just like these two moving in together.
No big money is coming in, and trading volume has shrunk to a pitiful level.
The market is stuck fluctuating in this tiny range, from just over 2,470 to just over 2,510.
Everyone’s just sitting tight within the current range. Nobody has enough capital to drive a one-way move.
Every now and then, the price pops up, like when my junior colleague suddenly starts talking about buying a house.
That’s just a bluff.
With no money in his pocket, even the slightest resistance overhead sent the price straight back down.
The big players are just sitting still in this tiny range.
If the price pushes up toward 2518 and you see that volume isn’t picking up, or that it leaves a long upper wick,
that’s a fake move showing a lack of conviction.
Don’t hesitate. Since you know it’s all just posturing, short it.
Trade direction: Short
Entry point: 2515–2525. Strong resistance overhead. If it surges without a volume breakout, it’s basically asking to get wrecked. Blindly chasing longs is just handing fees to the market makers.
Stop-loss level: 2555. (A sustained move above this level means the market makers are putting real money in. Admit you were wrong and exit. Protecting your capital comes first—never sit on a losing trade.)
Take-profit targets: 2475 to reduce position / 2410 to close out.
Strategy validity: If the trade hasn’t filled within 6 hours of publication, the strategy is invalid.
If you don’t have the capital, don’t dream of turning the world upside down.