【ETH 4H】Oversold doesn’t mean the bottom is in—2,635 is where the bears rule
$ETH The daily RSI has already dropped to 27.8, and many people are starting to call for a bottom. My take: don’t rush.
Current situation: ETH fell from 2,777 to 2,406 over the past four hours and is now moving sideways around 2,499 (Binance, 10-11 18:38).
① Structure: Both four-hour highs and lows are declining; the downtrend structure remains intact.
② Volume and price: The rebound came on declining volume, while the drop came on rising volume. Turnover over the last 10 candles is only 0.41 times the previous average.
③ Confluence: The 2,631–2,640 resistance zone coincides with Fib 0.618 (2,636), with the MA99 (2,646) just above it.
Plan 1 (primary): If the rebound stalls near 2,635, consider placing a small short position, with a stop-loss at 2,655 and a target of 2,410.
Plan 2 (backup): If price retests around 2,410 and stabilizes, consider placing a small long position, with a stop-loss at 2,385 and a target of 2,548.
Invalidation: If a four-hour candle closes above 2,669, the bearish thesis is invalidated—admit the mistake and exit. If price breaks below 2,385 and doesn’t recover, exit the long.
The long/short account ratio in the futures market is still 2.95. With longs this crowded, do you think 2,400 will hold?
$ETH
#以太坊 #TechnicalAnalysis
#BinanceSquare
⚠️ The above is a summary of information and personal opinions, and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
$ETH The daily RSI has already dropped to 27.8, and many people are starting to call for a bottom. My take: don’t rush.
Current situation: ETH fell from 2,777 to 2,406 over the past four hours and is now moving sideways around 2,499 (Binance, 10-11 18:38).
① Structure: Both four-hour highs and lows are declining; the downtrend structure remains intact.
② Volume and price: The rebound came on declining volume, while the drop came on rising volume. Turnover over the last 10 candles is only 0.41 times the previous average.
③ Confluence: The 2,631–2,640 resistance zone coincides with Fib 0.618 (2,636), with the MA99 (2,646) just above it.
Plan 1 (primary): If the rebound stalls near 2,635, consider placing a small short position, with a stop-loss at 2,655 and a target of 2,410.
Plan 2 (backup): If price retests around 2,410 and stabilizes, consider placing a small long position, with a stop-loss at 2,385 and a target of 2,548.
Invalidation: If a four-hour candle closes above 2,669, the bearish thesis is invalidated—admit the mistake and exit. If price breaks below 2,385 and doesn’t recover, exit the long.
The long/short account ratio in the futures market is still 2.95. With longs this crowded, do you think 2,400 will hold?
$ETH
#以太坊 #TechnicalAnalysis
#BinanceSquare
⚠️ The above is a summary of information and personal opinions, and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.