I used a formula to calculate the probability of liquidation and found that the expected value was negative.
But I didn’t believe it. I thought other people got liquidated because they couldn’t do the math. I could.
Then BTC went from 87,000 to 80,000 while I was 3x long, and my calculus hadn’t accounted for my hands shaking. Liquidated. Lost 80,000.
When I saw this 🐕🦺, I did the math:
• Floki, Musk’s Shiba Inu, peaked at a market cap of $3.5 billion.
• But this Havanese raised by Musk has a market cap of just over $3 million.
I asked myself: What would it be worth if it reached 1/10 of Floki’s value? What about 1/100?
My calculator said: Stop pressing the buttons. The screen’s about to crack.
Then I compared the math of leveraged trading: at 3x leverage, a 33% drop wipes you out.
With spot, it takes a 100% drop.
Its market cap is only a few million dollars right now, and the odds of it dropping another 90% are lower than the odds of it following Floki’s trajectory.
At last, the math whiz put math to good use: buy spot; don’t calculate the liquidation price, calculate the upside compared with similar projects.
Floki reached $3.5 billion. This dog is just getting started. $ETH
$DOGE
But I didn’t believe it. I thought other people got liquidated because they couldn’t do the math. I could.
Then BTC went from 87,000 to 80,000 while I was 3x long, and my calculus hadn’t accounted for my hands shaking. Liquidated. Lost 80,000.
When I saw this 🐕🦺, I did the math:
• Floki, Musk’s Shiba Inu, peaked at a market cap of $3.5 billion.
• But this Havanese raised by Musk has a market cap of just over $3 million.
I asked myself: What would it be worth if it reached 1/10 of Floki’s value? What about 1/100?
My calculator said: Stop pressing the buttons. The screen’s about to crack.
Then I compared the math of leveraged trading: at 3x leverage, a 33% drop wipes you out.
With spot, it takes a 100% drop.
Its market cap is only a few million dollars right now, and the odds of it dropping another 90% are lower than the odds of it following Floki’s trajectory.
At last, the math whiz put math to good use: buy spot; don’t calculate the liquidation price, calculate the upside compared with similar projects.
Floki reached $3.5 billion. This dog is just getting started. $ETH
$DOGE