Global long-term bond yields are still rising. Higher discount rates are weighing on risk appetite, leaving crypto assets more vulnerable to liquidity expectations than to a direct change in direction from lower rate-hike expectations. On October 11, Cailian Press cited a research report from CITIC Securities saying that stabilizing oil prices, weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, and lower Fed rate-hike expectations had done nothing to reverse the rise in global long-term bond yields. The report attributed this to persistently strong private-sector investment and financing demand: fueled by trillions of dollars in investment, North America has moved beyond the abnormally low growth and low interest rates that followed the financial crisis. Until the turning point in the AI investment cycle arrives, high interest rates are the new normal to contend with. The areas of demand less sensitive to high overseas interest rates are limited to North American AI and sectors tied to China’s central government fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, overseas-facing and resource stocks, which have delivered a more favorable investment experience in the past, are under pressure. Amid weak demand, industries undergoing capacity exits are seen as increasingly scarce, and the anti-involution process is still worth monitoring next year. For crypto prices, Bitcoin ($BTC ) has no new short-term price anchor to draw on. Instead, the focus should be on whether risk appetite continues to contract as long-term yields rise, whether trading volume supports a recovery, and whether volume subsides during pullbacks. For portfolio positioning, the report recommends relying on high-growth sectors and industries undergoing capacity exits to navigate high rates, while closely tracking the turning point in the AI investment cycle. Macro factors can explain the sources of volatility, but cannot replace price structure itself.
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