Before CPI comes out, don’t mistake a pause in rate hikes for monetary easing
The easiest way to get burned in crypto is to mistake “no worse” for “about to get better.” U.S. September CPI will be released next week at 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, followed by PPI at the same time on the 15th. Both evenings are worth watching closely.
First, let’s look at the data already in: August CPI rose 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month; core CPI rose 2.4% year over year and 0.3% month over month. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% in a single month, accounting for more than a third of the overall monthly increase. This shows that energy is indeed pushing inflation higher, but price pressures have not disappeared even when energy is excluded.
The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. So the question this time is whether inflation is high enough to warrant further tightening—not when the market will get monetary easing.
My view: if core inflation comes in hotter than expected, the dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen, putting BTC under pressure. If the data is moderate, easing concerns about tighter policy could make a rebound more likely. But a pause in rate hikes is still not the same as a rate cut. When trading futures, I pay more attention to how funds react after the data comes out. I wouldn’t rush to chase the first rally or buy the first dip; I’d wait for the market to digest the news before judging the direction.
The easiest way to get burned in crypto is to mistake “no worse” for “about to get better.” U.S. September CPI will be released next week at 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, followed by PPI at the same time on the 15th. Both evenings are worth watching closely.
First, let’s look at the data already in: August CPI rose 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month; core CPI rose 2.4% year over year and 0.3% month over month. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% in a single month, accounting for more than a third of the overall monthly increase. This shows that energy is indeed pushing inflation higher, but price pressures have not disappeared even when energy is excluded.
The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. So the question this time is whether inflation is high enough to warrant further tightening—not when the market will get monetary easing.
My view: if core inflation comes in hotter than expected, the dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen, putting BTC under pressure. If the data is moderate, easing concerns about tighter policy could make a rebound more likely. But a pause in rate hikes is still not the same as a rate cut. When trading futures, I pay more attention to how funds react after the data comes out. I wouldn’t rush to chase the first rally or buy the first dip; I’d wait for the market to digest the news before judging the direction.