Macro in 3 Minutes | October 11
Yesterday I said the long end had stalled, not turned. Today, there isn’t even a new data point.
1. Why there’s nothing to say
On Sunday, the latest U.S. Treasury data was still from 10/9. Neither the Fed nor the Bank of Japan released any new rate statements. I’m not going to force a story just to have something to say.
2. The three numbers I’m watching
1️⃣ 5.24%｜10-year Treasury yield at the 10/9 close. The short end bounced from 4.75 to 4.80 that day, while the 30-year yield stayed pinned at 5.60. It hasn’t fallen further, but it hasn’t recovered what it gave up, either.
2️⃣ 61｜Fear & Greed Index. It’s at 61 this morning, down from 64 yesterday. Prices barely moved, but sentiment softened by 3 points.
3️⃣ 59.7%｜BTC’s share of total market capitalization. This morning’s reading was 59.1%—it hasn’t concentrated further at the top, nor has it spread out.
3. How I’m reading it
Prices are still grinding in place—$BTC 82991 (+0.3%) $ETH 2499 (+0.2%) $BNB 747 (-0.3%)—and are only 100 points away from this morning’s 82881. BNB is still a long way from 770.
What I’m doing: nothing. I’ll wait for Monday’s new Treasury data, then see whether the long end stays put or backs off from 5.60. I’m not taking this move today.
Are you waiting for Monday’s new data, or have you already written off the weekend?
Yesterday I said the long end had stalled, not turned. Today, there isn’t even a new data point.
1. Why there’s nothing to say
On Sunday, the latest U.S. Treasury data was still from 10/9. Neither the Fed nor the Bank of Japan released any new rate statements. I’m not going to force a story just to have something to say.
2. The three numbers I’m watching
1️⃣ 5.24%｜10-year Treasury yield at the 10/9 close. The short end bounced from 4.75 to 4.80 that day, while the 30-year yield stayed pinned at 5.60. It hasn’t fallen further, but it hasn’t recovered what it gave up, either.
2️⃣ 61｜Fear & Greed Index. It’s at 61 this morning, down from 64 yesterday. Prices barely moved, but sentiment softened by 3 points.
3️⃣ 59.7%｜BTC’s share of total market capitalization. This morning’s reading was 59.1%—it hasn’t concentrated further at the top, nor has it spread out.
3. How I’m reading it
Prices are still grinding in place—$BTC 82991 (+0.3%) $ETH 2499 (+0.2%) $BNB 747 (-0.3%)—and are only 100 points away from this morning’s 82881. BNB is still a long way from 770.
What I’m doing: nothing. I’ll wait for Monday’s new Treasury data, then see whether the long end stays put or backs off from 5.60. I’m not taking this move today.
Are you waiting for Monday’s new data, or have you already written off the weekend?