If you also see $BTC a big bullish candle and feel like chasing it, then panic and sell after two down days, this approach may be useful. I don't try to guess tops or bottoms either—I just use two indicators to keep myself in check.

Experienced traders can skip this; the following is a version anyone can follow: ROC20 shows the direction, while LogBias shows whether the price has already moved too far. One helps identify the trend; the other keeps you from chasing a rally.

1. Start by looking at ROC20

The calculation is: divide today's closing price by the closing price 20 days ago, subtract 1, then multiply by 100%.

When ROC20 is above 0, it means the overall trend has been upward over the past 20 days; below 0 means it has been downward. A move above its 5-day or 10-day moving average can be seen as accelerating momentum; a move below either one signals weakening momentum.

The key point is: a golden cross only means it’s worth paying attention—it doesn’t mean you should go all in right away. Many people lose money not because they fail to spot a trend, but because they mistake “picking up speed” for “going up forever.”

2. Use LogBias to filter out chasing highs

LogBias measures how far the current price has moved away from the 20-day moving average. Think of the moving average as the midpoint of a pendulum: the farther above it the price is, the less worthwhile it is to keep chasing; the farther below it is, the less that means it will bounce right away.

Open the daily chart for $ETH or $BNB and look at ROC20 alongside the price’s distance from the 20-day moving average: if momentum is rising and the deviation is moderate, you can keep watching; if momentum is rising but the deviation is already near its own historical highs, it’s better to wait for a pullback than let a big green candle rush you into a trade; if momentum is weakening and the deviation is narrowing quickly, prioritize managing risk.

Don’t simply copy the fixed thresholds commonly used for ETFs. Crypto assets trade around the clock, are more volatile, and different coins have different levels of price responsiveness, so it’s more useful to refer to their own deviation ranges over a recent period.

Tonight, do just one thing: switch the coin you trade most often to the daily chart, check ROC20 and its deviation from the 20-day moving average, then decide whether to trade. Indicators don’t guarantee returns; they just help you avoid paying tuition for relying on “gut feelings.”