Next week’s CPI and PPI releases will largely set the tone for whether the Fed raises rates in October.
At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14, the U.S. September CPI and core CPI will be released. At the same time on the 15th, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will all be published. Taken together, these reports are the most important data points for the Fed ahead of its October 28 meeting.
Markets are now pricing in just an 18% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October, down from 70% a week ago. Note that the drop in odds doesn’t mean the Fed is turning dovish—it just means a move has shifted from October to December. If core CPI is mild, BTC could rebound and test 84,500 or even 85,000. If core CPI comes in hot, BTC will face immediate pressure around 83,000. The 81,500–82,000 range is short-term support; if that breaks, 80,000 is next.
In short: for now, it’s all about waiting for the data.
$BTC #CPI #FederalReserve
At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14, the U.S. September CPI and core CPI will be released. At the same time on the 15th, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will all be published. Taken together, these reports are the most important data points for the Fed ahead of its October 28 meeting.
Markets are now pricing in just an 18% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October, down from 70% a week ago. Note that the drop in odds doesn’t mean the Fed is turning dovish—it just means a move has shifted from October to December. If core CPI is mild, BTC could rebound and test 84,500 or even 85,000. If core CPI comes in hot, BTC will face immediate pressure around 83,000. The 81,500–82,000 range is short-term support; if that breaks, 80,000 is next.
In short: for now, it’s all about waiting for the data.
$BTC #CPI #FederalReserve