$牛来’s bullish conditions were not triggered this morning. The bearish conditions were breached intraday, but still need confirmation at the close. After 11:00, the price hit a low of 0.07645, then a full 1-hour candle closed at 0.07713. Spot was around 0.07728 before 14:00. The previously set 0.0803 level was never reclaimed, so I did not chase an entry.
The drop came with about $1.85 million in contract trading volume in a single hour, roughly 2.4 times the average of the previous five hours. However, open interest was largely unchanged over the past three hours, and the funding rate remained around 0.005%. The verifiable facts are that the price fell on higher volume without an increase in open interest. My read is that this was more likely position rotation and stop-loss liquidations than a sustained buildup of new short positions.
The 1-hour EMA50, currently around 0.07718, is now the critical level. A full 1-hour close below 0.0771 would confirm that the recovery is weakening, with the 4-hour EMA20 around 0.07672 as the next level to watch. Only a close back above 0.0786 would put 0.0803 back in play. #牛来 #午间跟踪 #RiskWatch
The drop came with about $1.85 million in contract trading volume in a single hour, roughly 2.4 times the average of the previous five hours. However, open interest was largely unchanged over the past three hours, and the funding rate remained around 0.005%. The verifiable facts are that the price fell on higher volume without an increase in open interest. My read is that this was more likely position rotation and stop-loss liquidations than a sustained buildup of new short positions.
The 1-hour EMA50, currently around 0.07718, is now the critical level. A full 1-hour close below 0.0771 would confirm that the recovery is weakening, with the 4-hour EMA20 around 0.07672 as the next level to watch. Only a close back above 0.0786 would put 0.0803 back in play. #牛来 #午间跟踪 #RiskWatch