$STRK has broken above 0.12: the script is only halfway through, and the rest is more dangerous
In the previous post, I said that if 0.10 held, we could look toward 0.12–0.15. Now the script has played out: $STRK surged to a high of 0.122 today, more than doubling from 0.05 in three days, with 24-hour trading volume of $770 million, while $BTC is still moving sideways around 83,000. But there’s still no formal proposal to “switch to L1.” The token has doubled in three days, with no contribution from fundamentals—the move is driven entirely by sentiment.
On-chain signals have also shifted: on October 9 and 10, exchanges saw substantial net outflows (more than 31 million tokens on October 10 alone), suggesting accumulation ahead of the rally. Today, flows have turned net positive, and early holders are starting to sell. Some on-chain analysis has also suggested that a sizable share of its transfer volume may be wash activity, so the huge trading volume should be taken with a grain of salt.
My personal take: the trend is still intact, but the risk-reward has changed. The move from 0.05 to 0.10 was about money made from a gap between expectations and reality; above 0.12, it’s about passing the baton, and the later it gets, the more dangerous it becomes. If you’re holding, use 0.10 as your stop-loss, take profits in stages, and secure your gains. If you’re not holding, don’t chase—wait for a pullback and consider entering only if 0.10 holds. The 0.15 level above is the upper limit of sentiment. If the daily candle breaks below 0.10 and fails to reclaim it, the script is invalidated, and 0.075–0.08 comes back into view. If the official team cools expectations around or denies the “switch to L1,” exit immediately.
In the previous post, I said that if 0.10 held, we could look toward 0.12–0.15. Now the script has played out: $STRK surged to a high of 0.122 today, more than doubling from 0.05 in three days, with 24-hour trading volume of $770 million, while $BTC is still moving sideways around 83,000. But there’s still no formal proposal to “switch to L1.” The token has doubled in three days, with no contribution from fundamentals—the move is driven entirely by sentiment.
On-chain signals have also shifted: on October 9 and 10, exchanges saw substantial net outflows (more than 31 million tokens on October 10 alone), suggesting accumulation ahead of the rally. Today, flows have turned net positive, and early holders are starting to sell. Some on-chain analysis has also suggested that a sizable share of its transfer volume may be wash activity, so the huge trading volume should be taken with a grain of salt.
My personal take: the trend is still intact, but the risk-reward has changed. The move from 0.05 to 0.10 was about money made from a gap between expectations and reality; above 0.12, it’s about passing the baton, and the later it gets, the more dangerous it becomes. If you’re holding, use 0.10 as your stop-loss, take profits in stages, and secure your gains. If you’re not holding, don’t chase—wait for a pullback and consider entering only if 0.10 holds. The 0.15 level above is the upper limit of sentiment. If the daily candle breaks below 0.10 and fails to reclaim it, the script is invalidated, and 0.075–0.08 comes back into view. If the official team cools expectations around or denies the “switch to L1,” exit immediately.