$FIL 24h is down 6.13%, now at 1.0957. BTC is up 0.41% over the same period, so FIL is moving down on its own. Gate perpetuals hit a daily high of 1.2087 and a low of 1.0927, with 24h volume of about 10.64 million U and a funding rate of -0.0013%.
Price action: Yesterday, from 10:00 to 12:00, the price surged from 1.09 to the daily high of 1.2087, but was slammed back to 1.1678 by noon, then drifted steadily lower. At around 15:00, about 930,000 U in selling pushed it down to 1.1283. It mostly moved sideways around 1.12–1.13 through the evening. At 08:00 today, about 440,000 U in selling took it down to 1.1048, and at 11:00 another hour saw about 460,000 U in selling push it to the daily low of 1.0927. It is now hovering near the low.
Reason: BTC hasn't fallen from 82,877. The index is at 1.095 and the mark price at 1.0949, close to spot. The funding rate is only -0.0013%, so shorts aren't being squeezed. The gains from yesterday's surge have simply been given back steadily, and every rebound to 1.12–1.13 has been sold.
Conclusion: I'm bearish, but won't chase the move. If it rebounds to 1.105–1.11, consider a small short position: 2x leverage, 20% position size, stop-loss at 1.1275 (admit the trade is wrong if it moves above the 09:00 high of 1.1268), first take-profit at 1.0927; if that breaks, look for 1.08. Don't stubbornly short if it holds above 1.1275.
Price action: Yesterday, from 10:00 to 12:00, the price surged from 1.09 to the daily high of 1.2087, but was slammed back to 1.1678 by noon, then drifted steadily lower. At around 15:00, about 930,000 U in selling pushed it down to 1.1283. It mostly moved sideways around 1.12–1.13 through the evening. At 08:00 today, about 440,000 U in selling took it down to 1.1048, and at 11:00 another hour saw about 460,000 U in selling push it to the daily low of 1.0927. It is now hovering near the low.
Reason: BTC hasn't fallen from 82,877. The index is at 1.095 and the mark price at 1.0949, close to spot. The funding rate is only -0.0013%, so shorts aren't being squeezed. The gains from yesterday's surge have simply been given back steadily, and every rebound to 1.12–1.13 has been sold.
Conclusion: I'm bearish, but won't chase the move. If it rebounds to 1.105–1.11, consider a small short position: 2x leverage, 20% position size, stop-loss at 1.1275 (admit the trade is wrong if it moves above the 09:00 high of 1.1268), first take-profit at 1.0927; if that breaks, look for 1.08. Don't stubbornly short if it holds above 1.1275.