Next week’s real turning point is Wednesday night
Next week’s crypto calendar looks packed, but not every unlock or project update is likely to change the market’s direction.
Let’s focus on three time windows.
First, U.S. September CPI at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14.
This will be the week’s most important macro event. The market won’t just be watching whether inflation is high or low; it will also be looking at whether pressure from energy prices is continuing to feed into core inflation. If the data push rate expectations higher again, yields and the dollar will usually react first, followed by a repricing of BTC.
Second, the Fed’s Beige Book at 2:00 a.m. on October 15, followed by PPI and retail sales at 8:30 p.m. that day.
CPI gives us a single number. The Beige Book and the subsequent data will help answer whether cost pressures on businesses are spreading and whether consumer demand is weakening. If inflation pressures and demand data point in different directions, the market may not immediately settle on a trend, but volatility often picks up first.
Third come the events within the crypto market itself.
CONX is scheduled to unlock on the 15th, ARB on the 16th, and DBR on the 17th. There are also single-token events, such as BWOW’s final trading day and RVN’s delisting. These are worth watching if you hold the relevant tokens, but they shouldn’t be treated as direct reasons for BTC to rise or fall. Whether an unlock creates selling pressure depends on whether the newly circulating supply enters the market and whether trading volume can absorb it—not simply on the word “unlock.”
My watchlist for next week is simple:
On Wednesday night, first see whether macro data shift risk appetite;
On Thursday, see whether the data confirm one another;
From Friday through the weekend, see whether token supply creates real selling pressure.
There’s plenty of news, but not much of it will truly change the price structure.
If you see things differently, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Follow my profile.
#BTC #加密市场 #宏观观察 $BTC
Next week’s crypto calendar looks packed, but not every unlock or project update is likely to change the market’s direction.
Let’s focus on three time windows.
First, U.S. September CPI at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14.
This will be the week’s most important macro event. The market won’t just be watching whether inflation is high or low; it will also be looking at whether pressure from energy prices is continuing to feed into core inflation. If the data push rate expectations higher again, yields and the dollar will usually react first, followed by a repricing of BTC.
Second, the Fed’s Beige Book at 2:00 a.m. on October 15, followed by PPI and retail sales at 8:30 p.m. that day.
CPI gives us a single number. The Beige Book and the subsequent data will help answer whether cost pressures on businesses are spreading and whether consumer demand is weakening. If inflation pressures and demand data point in different directions, the market may not immediately settle on a trend, but volatility often picks up first.
Third come the events within the crypto market itself.
CONX is scheduled to unlock on the 15th, ARB on the 16th, and DBR on the 17th. There are also single-token events, such as BWOW’s final trading day and RVN’s delisting. These are worth watching if you hold the relevant tokens, but they shouldn’t be treated as direct reasons for BTC to rise or fall. Whether an unlock creates selling pressure depends on whether the newly circulating supply enters the market and whether trading volume can absorb it—not simply on the word “unlock.”
My watchlist for next week is simple:
On Wednesday night, first see whether macro data shift risk appetite;
On Thursday, see whether the data confirm one another;
From Friday through the weekend, see whether token supply creates real selling pressure.
There’s plenty of news, but not much of it will truly change the price structure.
If you see things differently, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Follow my profile.
#BTC #加密市场 #宏观观察 $BTC