为什么我要做多，我解释一下。
You didn’t decide to go long on BTC on a whim.
Several facts have clearly pointed the way:
1. Smart money is buying. Whales added 14,335 BTC in October, worth about $1.22 billion. Addresses holding 10–10,000 BTC added 86,702 BTC over three weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $122 million in inflows in a single day and bought $1.57 billion over a month, with holdings now above 800,000 BTC.
2. Coins are being taken off the market. Exchange balances are at 2.68 million BTC, a three-year low. Binance saw net outflows of 23,000 BTC in one week. Selling pressure is low.
3. Leverage has been flushed out. The sharp drop on October 7 liquidated $550 million, but the fear index at 70 didn’t trigger capitulation. This was a shakeout, not a crash.
4. Retail traders are sitting out. Trading volume is $6.8 billion, below 90% of readings. There were $12.8 billion in outflows over 30 days, against $4.9 billion in new inflows. Fewer retail traders makes it easier for institutions to build positions.
5. The macro and regulatory outlook is shifting. The probability of an October rate hike fell from 36% to 15–17%, and Citi expects consecutive rate cuts. The SEC and CFTC have clarified that Bitcoin is not a security, and custody rules have been eased.
So if you’re going long, you’re essentially betting.
My reason for going long is to follow the trend:
Institutional accumulation + tightening supply + leverage being flushed out + improving policy outlook, ultimately leading to an upside breakout.
The buying plan is clear too: 30% at $83,000–$84,000, 40% at $80,000–$81,000, and 30% on a break above $87,000. Reduce the position if it falls below $78,000. If the FOMC turns hawkish and ETF inflows don’t return, the thesis weakens.
We’re not blindly bullish.
We’re going long conditionally, following the whales.
You didn’t decide to go long on BTC on a whim.
Several facts have clearly pointed the way:
1. Smart money is buying. Whales added 14,335 BTC in October, worth about $1.22 billion. Addresses holding 10–10,000 BTC added 86,702 BTC over three weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $122 million in inflows in a single day and bought $1.57 billion over a month, with holdings now above 800,000 BTC.
2. Coins are being taken off the market. Exchange balances are at 2.68 million BTC, a three-year low. Binance saw net outflows of 23,000 BTC in one week. Selling pressure is low.
3. Leverage has been flushed out. The sharp drop on October 7 liquidated $550 million, but the fear index at 70 didn’t trigger capitulation. This was a shakeout, not a crash.
4. Retail traders are sitting out. Trading volume is $6.8 billion, below 90% of readings. There were $12.8 billion in outflows over 30 days, against $4.9 billion in new inflows. Fewer retail traders makes it easier for institutions to build positions.
5. The macro and regulatory outlook is shifting. The probability of an October rate hike fell from 36% to 15–17%, and Citi expects consecutive rate cuts. The SEC and CFTC have clarified that Bitcoin is not a security, and custody rules have been eased.
So if you’re going long, you’re essentially betting.
My reason for going long is to follow the trend:
Institutional accumulation + tightening supply + leverage being flushed out + improving policy outlook, ultimately leading to an upside breakout.
The buying plan is clear too: 30% at $83,000–$84,000, 40% at $80,000–$81,000, and 30% on a break above $87,000. Reduce the position if it falls below $78,000. If the FOMC turns hawkish and ETF inflows don’t return, the thesis weakens.
We’re not blindly bullish.
We’re going long conditionally, following the whales.