On this day a year ago: plunged from $116,000 to $102,000 in half an hour

$19 billion—that was the total amount liquidated across the crypto market on October 11, 2024, and it remains the record for the largest single-day liquidation event in crypto history. Bitcoin had just hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 7, and everyone thought $130,000 was all but certain. Then, at around 16:50 Beijing time, the price plunged from $116,900 to $102,000 in half an hour—a 12.7% drop, with not even a chance to catch its breath. Even more astonishingly, liquidity dried up in an instant: ATOM briefly fell to $0.001 on Binance, while its low on Coinbase at the same time was still $3.56—a gap of nearly 4,000 times. Major assets like wBETH, $BNSOL, and USDe also flash-crashed across the board. Binance later paid $283 million to affected users, only then managing to quiet the backlash.

That $400 million short position—no one has been able to explain it to this day

That $400 million $BTC short position opened on Hyperliquid was timed almost too perfectly: it was opened just before Trump announced tariff-related news, and Arkham immediately labeled it the “Trump insider whale.” But Garrett Jin, who was linked to the address, later flatly denied any connection to Trump. To this day, there’s no solid evidence to support the allegations. Was it insider trading or just a lucky guess? No one can say for sure. It remains a mystery, and many people cite it as “proof that market makers knew the news in advance and dumped on retail traders.” But if there’s no evidence, take it with a grain of salt—don’t take it as fact.

A year later, $BTC is back above $83,000, but nobody learned the lesson

$BTC is now trading at $82,995, nearly $20,000 below the $102,000 low after that day’s crash. A year has passed, and the market seems to have completely forgotten the lessons from back then: high-leverage altcoins are flying around again, futures funding rates keep hitting new highs, and retail traders are once again shouting about “100x coins” and “breaking new highs.” The crash back then was fundamentally caused by a liquidity crisis combined with a buildup of excessive leverage. One unexpected headline was all it took to trigger a cascade of liquidations. Keeping your leverage below 3x and maintaining enough cash reserves is far more sensible than blindly chasing hot trends. If extreme volatility hits, cash lets you scoop up bargains instead of getting forced out through liquidation. And if you want to enter the spot trading tournament for rewards, don’t gamble with your futures leverage. Steadily collecting the prize money beats getting liquidated.

Which side are you on?

The market is now split into two fiercely arguing camps: one says the macro environment is improving, so we won’t see another extreme crash; the other says leverage has climbed back to high levels and another $19 billion liquidation event could happen at any moment. Which side do you think is right? Reply 1 if you’re bullish, 2 if you’re cautious.

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