【A mistake retail traders keep making: seeing a big drop and shouting “oversold”—that’s really not what’s happening with UNI this time】
A lot of people see -15.5% over 7 days and immediately start thinking “oversold.”
I get it. I thought the same way back in 2017. And what happened? There was a basement beneath the floor, with another eighteen floors below that.
Don’t get ahead of yourself. Look at the data: $ 7.61, up 4.9% in 24 hours. Looks like a rebound, right? But seven days ago, it was still hovering around $ 9. It’s true that it’s down 15% in a week, but the question is: where did the decline start? Looking back over the past month, this coin hasn’t really managed to get back on its feet.
A few thoughts on the technicals:
On the daily chart, each high is lower than the last, and the lows keep moving down too. How many people are trapped in the $ 8.5 to $ 9 range? The rebound over the past two days has come on declining volume. That’s clearly not fresh money coming in—it’s trapped holders unwilling to cut their losses, and bulls trying to catch their breath. For the price to head straight back up in a V-shaped recovery from here, volume would need to more than triple. Otherwise, it’s just a bull trap.
The 4-hour structure looks a little better: it’s formed a small base, trading between $ 7.4 and $ 7.8. If it can hold here, it might move along with the market once Bitcoin’s direction becomes clearer. But don’t expect it to make a move on its own. Coins like UNI are tightly tied to market sentiment.
The 1-hour chart is classic sideways action—a place for short-term traders to trade back and forth. The swings aren’t big, but they happen often.
So where are the key battleground levels? Bears are watching $ 8 to $ 8.2. That’s the zone that turned into resistance after support broke a week ago. Bulls are defending $ 7 to $ 7.2; if that breaks, then the support really is gone. Volume will tell us whether the price moves up or down. Right now, I don’t see anything powerful enough to break this stalemate.
I don’t doubt UNI’s underlying fundamentals. Uniswap’s TVL and trading volume speak for themselves, and it’s still a leading DEX. But the problem is that of the people entering at this level, eight out of ten are buying because they “feel like it’s fallen enough,” not because “the fundamentals make sense.” Buying into a position out of sentiment isn’t something I’ve done since 2017.
My current take: in the short term, expect a choppy recovery. The direction will depend on Bitcoin, and the odds of UNI establishing its own trend are low.
Honestly, my position is very small right now. I’m tempted, but I haven’t bought in this time. Mainly because this is an awkward middle ground where both bulls and bears can make a case. I’d rather miss out than get slapped around repeatedly.
What about you? How are you feeling about this UNI move—itching to jump in, or have you already thrown in the towel?
A lot of people see -15.5% over 7 days and immediately start thinking “oversold.”
I get it. I thought the same way back in 2017. And what happened? There was a basement beneath the floor, with another eighteen floors below that.
Don’t get ahead of yourself. Look at the data: $ 7.61, up 4.9% in 24 hours. Looks like a rebound, right? But seven days ago, it was still hovering around $ 9. It’s true that it’s down 15% in a week, but the question is: where did the decline start? Looking back over the past month, this coin hasn’t really managed to get back on its feet.
A few thoughts on the technicals:
On the daily chart, each high is lower than the last, and the lows keep moving down too. How many people are trapped in the $ 8.5 to $ 9 range? The rebound over the past two days has come on declining volume. That’s clearly not fresh money coming in—it’s trapped holders unwilling to cut their losses, and bulls trying to catch their breath. For the price to head straight back up in a V-shaped recovery from here, volume would need to more than triple. Otherwise, it’s just a bull trap.
The 4-hour structure looks a little better: it’s formed a small base, trading between $ 7.4 and $ 7.8. If it can hold here, it might move along with the market once Bitcoin’s direction becomes clearer. But don’t expect it to make a move on its own. Coins like UNI are tightly tied to market sentiment.
The 1-hour chart is classic sideways action—a place for short-term traders to trade back and forth. The swings aren’t big, but they happen often.
So where are the key battleground levels? Bears are watching $ 8 to $ 8.2. That’s the zone that turned into resistance after support broke a week ago. Bulls are defending $ 7 to $ 7.2; if that breaks, then the support really is gone. Volume will tell us whether the price moves up or down. Right now, I don’t see anything powerful enough to break this stalemate.
I don’t doubt UNI’s underlying fundamentals. Uniswap’s TVL and trading volume speak for themselves, and it’s still a leading DEX. But the problem is that of the people entering at this level, eight out of ten are buying because they “feel like it’s fallen enough,” not because “the fundamentals make sense.” Buying into a position out of sentiment isn’t something I’ve done since 2017.
My current take: in the short term, expect a choppy recovery. The direction will depend on Bitcoin, and the odds of UNI establishing its own trend are low.
Honestly, my position is very small right now. I’m tempted, but I haven’t bought in this time. Mainly because this is an awkward middle ground where both bulls and bears can make a case. I’d rather miss out than get slapped around repeatedly.
What about you? How are you feeling about this UNI move—itching to jump in, or have you already thrown in the towel?