【AVAX is down 93%, but I’m not here to ask whether you should buy the dip】
You can check the numbers yourselves: $ 10.5, down nearly 6 points in 7 days, with the Fear & Greed Index at 64. Some say that’s the greed zone, meaning market sentiment is still okay.
But that’s not the point.
The point is: nobody’s been talking about AVAX for a long time. The last time it was this “quiet,” I think, was the second half of 2021. Back then, people in the community were playing dead. The team posted weekly updates saying everything was on track, but the price just wouldn’t budge. And then? When it climbed past 140, they all came crawling out, saying, “I was bullish all along.”
You see, the people who play dead in a bear market are the loudest in a bull market.
We’re at that point again now. It’s down 93% from its ATH. The community is still posting weekly updates, the code is still being updated, and people are still putting in honest work. But take a look at social media—posts about AVAX get a touching number of likes.
That’s pretty interesting.
I’m not saying “no one’s paying attention, so it must be an opportunity.” That’s analyst logic. What I’m saying is: the people still paying attention to AVAX are either true believers, old-timers with a very low cost basis, or people specifically here to pick through the wreckage. Put those three groups together, and the community actually feels more genuine than it did in the bull market.
Do you think the 2021 heyday, when “everyone said AVAX could hit 500,” was a good thing?
Of course not. That kind of hype is a graveyard for retail investors.
So I’m not watching the price or the sentiment index. I’m watching to see whether the team is still building, and whether the people in the community are truly gone or just lying low. I learned this back in 2017: when something’s really dying, its community dies first.
AVAX isn’t dead yet. The codebase is still being updated, the ecosystem is still running. It’s not as shiny as it was in the bull market, but it’s still breathing.
Doesn’t that tell you something? The team can outlast the retail bagholders.
So what does this mean in practice?
It means that if you’re an old-timer with a low cost basis, you can afford to wait it out. If you’re new, getting in at this level gives you much better odds than chasing the price at its ATH. And if you’re on the team, this is your time to build under the hood. When the bull market comes, it’ll be obvious who’s been swimming naked.
Of course, we could just keep grinding along like this, with no buyers stepping in, fundamentals deteriorating, and the price continuing to drift down. I’ve seen that script before, too.
So I can’t tell you whether you should “buy or sell.”
But I can tell you this: the people still talking about AVAX are either fools or people with a story to tell. Sometimes, when those two groups come together, they can make something happen. Sometimes, they just keep hanging on like this.
What’s your mindset these days? Still holding, or did you get out a long time ago?
You can check the numbers yourselves: $ 10.5, down nearly 6 points in 7 days, with the Fear & Greed Index at 64. Some say that’s the greed zone, meaning market sentiment is still okay.
But that’s not the point.
The point is: nobody’s been talking about AVAX for a long time. The last time it was this “quiet,” I think, was the second half of 2021. Back then, people in the community were playing dead. The team posted weekly updates saying everything was on track, but the price just wouldn’t budge. And then? When it climbed past 140, they all came crawling out, saying, “I was bullish all along.”
You see, the people who play dead in a bear market are the loudest in a bull market.
We’re at that point again now. It’s down 93% from its ATH. The community is still posting weekly updates, the code is still being updated, and people are still putting in honest work. But take a look at social media—posts about AVAX get a touching number of likes.
That’s pretty interesting.
I’m not saying “no one’s paying attention, so it must be an opportunity.” That’s analyst logic. What I’m saying is: the people still paying attention to AVAX are either true believers, old-timers with a very low cost basis, or people specifically here to pick through the wreckage. Put those three groups together, and the community actually feels more genuine than it did in the bull market.
Do you think the 2021 heyday, when “everyone said AVAX could hit 500,” was a good thing?
Of course not. That kind of hype is a graveyard for retail investors.
So I’m not watching the price or the sentiment index. I’m watching to see whether the team is still building, and whether the people in the community are truly gone or just lying low. I learned this back in 2017: when something’s really dying, its community dies first.
AVAX isn’t dead yet. The codebase is still being updated, the ecosystem is still running. It’s not as shiny as it was in the bull market, but it’s still breathing.
Doesn’t that tell you something? The team can outlast the retail bagholders.
So what does this mean in practice?
It means that if you’re an old-timer with a low cost basis, you can afford to wait it out. If you’re new, getting in at this level gives you much better odds than chasing the price at its ATH. And if you’re on the team, this is your time to build under the hood. When the bull market comes, it’ll be obvious who’s been swimming naked.
Of course, we could just keep grinding along like this, with no buyers stepping in, fundamentals deteriorating, and the price continuing to drift down. I’ve seen that script before, too.
So I can’t tell you whether you should “buy or sell.”
But I can tell you this: the people still talking about AVAX are either fools or people with a story to tell. Sometimes, when those two groups come together, they can make something happen. Sometimes, they just keep hanging on like this.
What’s your mindset these days? Still holding, or did you get out a long time ago?