Bitcoin: Regular Market, Neutral/Mixed Amid Conflicting Flows
Fundamentals and Valuation:
Core driver: India’s liquidity tightening and geopolitical oil disruptions may reinforce risk aversion and limit near-term organic spot capital. At the same time, Strive’s acquisition of 2,000 BTC, Thailand’s finalized rules for domestic spot Bitcoin ETF listings and reported whale accumulation of 15,000 BTC could support persistent demand if accumulation continues.
Valuation and flows: Bitcoin’s $1.67T market cap and 1.0 FDV ratio imply limited unlock overhang. Daily big-order net flow was +$110.16M. Large-order buying at 0.78 exceeded taker buying at 0.54, although the 0.76 up/down volume ratio favored selling.
Trend and Technicals:
Key levels: BTC trades at $83,034.01, below the $84,408.65 invalidation level and within the $79,859.46-$86,208.56 range.
Fundamentals and Valuation:
Core driver: India’s liquidity tightening and geopolitical oil disruptions may reinforce risk aversion and limit near-term organic spot capital. At the same time, Strive’s acquisition of 2,000 BTC, Thailand’s finalized rules for domestic spot Bitcoin ETF listings and reported whale accumulation of 15,000 BTC could support persistent demand if accumulation continues.
Valuation and flows: Bitcoin’s $1.67T market cap and 1.0 FDV ratio imply limited unlock overhang. Daily big-order net flow was +$110.16M. Large-order buying at 0.78 exceeded taker buying at 0.54, although the 0.76 up/down volume ratio favored selling.
Trend and Technicals:
Key levels: BTC trades at $83,034.01, below the $84,408.65 invalidation level and within the $79,859.46-$86,208.56 range.
