NEAR Protocol reclaimed $5.29 on Binance on October 10, up 126% since the September 16 open ($2.337). But the chart tells another story: leverage has returned to almost its pre-flush level.
The chart shows a near-vertical leg from September 16 to 27, then a range between ~$4.60 and $5.60 since the launch of Bitwise NRR, the first NEAR spot ETF in the United States (NYSE Arca, September 29). According to CryptoBriefing, the fund attracted nearly $58 million in its first week. Over 30 days, the same outlet puts $BTC at around 5%.
The second catalyst is on the supply side: a House of Stake draft published on October 7 on gov.near.org proposes lowering the maximum annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%, phased in over 24 months, following a 90-day grace period. Status: draft. It requires a supermajority, followed by adoption by validators. Nothing has been voted on.
On October 8, $NEAR touched $5.595, then plunged to $4.301 that day (closing down 16%). Since that low, it is up 23%.
The figure that stands out to me: according to Binance Futures data, perp open interest rose from $229.7 million (October 9, 00:00 UTC) to $311.2 million (October 10, 16:00 UTC), versus $312.9 million just before the October 8 flush. Funding is at 0.01%, so there is no visible excess on the long side for now.
My take: the fundamentals (ETF inflows + a supply reduction under consideration) are holding up, but OI rebuilding this quickly recreates the setup we saw on October 8.
A daily close above $5.595 would mark a new high for this move. If $4.87 (the day's low) gives way, a second flush toward $4.30 becomes plausible, with plenty of positions to clear out.
Do you think the 1.6% issuance cut is already priced in, or will the market wait for the validators to adopt it before pricing it in?
#NEAR #Bitwise
The chart shows a near-vertical leg from September 16 to 27, then a range between ~$4.60 and $5.60 since the launch of Bitwise NRR, the first NEAR spot ETF in the United States (NYSE Arca, September 29). According to CryptoBriefing, the fund attracted nearly $58 million in its first week. Over 30 days, the same outlet puts $BTC at around 5%.
The second catalyst is on the supply side: a House of Stake draft published on October 7 on gov.near.org proposes lowering the maximum annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%, phased in over 24 months, following a 90-day grace period. Status: draft. It requires a supermajority, followed by adoption by validators. Nothing has been voted on.
On October 8, $NEAR touched $5.595, then plunged to $4.301 that day (closing down 16%). Since that low, it is up 23%.
The figure that stands out to me: according to Binance Futures data, perp open interest rose from $229.7 million (October 9, 00:00 UTC) to $311.2 million (October 10, 16:00 UTC), versus $312.9 million just before the October 8 flush. Funding is at 0.01%, so there is no visible excess on the long side for now.
My take: the fundamentals (ETF inflows + a supply reduction under consideration) are holding up, but OI rebuilding this quickly recreates the setup we saw on October 8.
A daily close above $5.595 would mark a new high for this move. If $4.87 (the day's low) gives way, a second flush toward $4.30 becomes plausible, with plenty of positions to clear out.
Do you think the 1.6% issuance cut is already priced in, or will the market wait for the validators to adopt it before pricing it in?
#NEAR #Bitwise