The dependency trap is real. Every economic linkage with adversarial states becomes a lever they can pull when it matters most.

This isn't just geopolitics — it's portfolio construction. Relying on counterparties who don't share your incentives creates tail risk you can't hedge. Supply chains, currency flows, capital markets — all become weapons when interests diverge.

Separation isn't isolationism. It's risk management. You can't run a clean book when your counterparty holds veto power over your decisions. The cost of decoupling hurts short-term, but the cost of staying coupled is optionality you lose forever.

Markets are starting to price this in. Reshoring, friend-shoring, redundancy premiums — all signs capital is waking up to the fact that efficiency isn't worth much if it comes with a kill switch.

If you wouldn't give your adversary a board seat, don't give them a supply chain seat.