The negative funding rate on $MAGIC has deepened, yet the price has not continued to break higher. I still choose to wait and see: what is worth noting this time is that the rebound first reclaimed an old level, then fell back below it. We should not translate short-side payments directly into “an imminent short squeeze.”
At 22:03 on October 10, data for all 523 Binance USDT perpetual contracts was complete. MAGIC ranked second with a 24-hour gain of 35.95%, quoted at 0.106230. The previous article focused on reclaiming 0.112220 and breaking through 0.116960. This update adds three complete hourly periods from 19:00 to 22:00, along with the settled funding rate for 20:00, and the price action has taken a new turn.
From 19:00 to 20:00, the perpetual price rose from 0.112120 to 0.113460, up 1.20%, with 29.9799 million USDT in volume. The close did move above 0.112220, but the high of 0.116500 did not exceed 0.116960. The recovery conditions were only partially met; the broader uptrend has not yet resumed.
From 20:00 to 21:00, the price fell from 0.113430 to 0.107200, down 5.49%, with 31.2628 million USDT in volume. Trading activity during the pullback was not notably lower than in the previous hour. Then, from 21:00 to 22:00, it fell again from 0.107210 to 0.105620, down 1.48%, with a low of 0.102020 and volume of 24.7671 million USDT. Volume in the later hour declined 20.78%, and the loss narrowed, but the close was still lower. A drop in volume alone does not prove that a bottom is in.
Spot followed a similar path: it closed at 0.114500 from 19:00 to 20:00, fell to 0.108300 from 20:00 to 21:00, then closed at 0.106600 from 21:00 to 22:00. Spot volume in the final hour actually rose from 1.4445 million to 1.6666 million USDT. Perpetual volume fell while spot volume increased, yet both prices moved down. This is a stronger reminder than a decline in contract volume alone that the short-term price recovery in both markets has yet to stabilize.
The latest settled funding rate, for 20:00, was −0.468788%, compared with −0.057437% at 16:00; the negative rate widened considerably. A negative funding rate usually means shorts pay longs at settlement, indicating a clear divergence in the cost structure of positions. It does not guarantee a rise, nor does it prove that positions must be closed in the next hour. The two complete hours of declines after this settlement have already shown that a deeply negative funding rate and continued price weakness can coexist. A settled rate does not indicate what the next funding rate will be.
Open interest fell from 144.91 million MAGIC at 19:00 to 137.52 million at 22:00, a decrease of 5.10%. With the price giving back gains while outstanding contracts continued to decline, this looks more like a position-reduction phase. However, the data does not distinguish voluntary closures from liquidations, nor can it identify which side is exiting. The latest complete four-hour period, from 16:00 to 20:00, gained just 1.13%. The 20:00–24:00 period is not yet complete, so no conclusion can be drawn about the current four-hour period in advance.
Treasure’s official website still lists MAGIC as a token in its Agents computing-power consumption mechanism, but this query yielded no reliable new business data that could explain the price action over these few hours. Product mechanics and actual growth in usage should be considered separately; intraday volatility cannot be attributed solely to the AI narrative.
For now, first watch whether the area around 0.102020 can provide stable support, then whether a complete hourly candle can reclaim 0.112220. Only a further move above 0.116960, accompanied by spot-market participation, would justify a more positive assessment of the recovery’s durability. If the lows continue to give way, 0.100590 and 0.097270 remain reference points from previous lows. Funding rates can signal divergence, but any change in the price outlook must be supported by actual closes and buying support.
At 22:03 on October 10, data for all 523 Binance USDT perpetual contracts was complete. MAGIC ranked second with a 24-hour gain of 35.95%, quoted at 0.106230. The previous article focused on reclaiming 0.112220 and breaking through 0.116960. This update adds three complete hourly periods from 19:00 to 22:00, along with the settled funding rate for 20:00, and the price action has taken a new turn.
From 19:00 to 20:00, the perpetual price rose from 0.112120 to 0.113460, up 1.20%, with 29.9799 million USDT in volume. The close did move above 0.112220, but the high of 0.116500 did not exceed 0.116960. The recovery conditions were only partially met; the broader uptrend has not yet resumed.
From 20:00 to 21:00, the price fell from 0.113430 to 0.107200, down 5.49%, with 31.2628 million USDT in volume. Trading activity during the pullback was not notably lower than in the previous hour. Then, from 21:00 to 22:00, it fell again from 0.107210 to 0.105620, down 1.48%, with a low of 0.102020 and volume of 24.7671 million USDT. Volume in the later hour declined 20.78%, and the loss narrowed, but the close was still lower. A drop in volume alone does not prove that a bottom is in.
Spot followed a similar path: it closed at 0.114500 from 19:00 to 20:00, fell to 0.108300 from 20:00 to 21:00, then closed at 0.106600 from 21:00 to 22:00. Spot volume in the final hour actually rose from 1.4445 million to 1.6666 million USDT. Perpetual volume fell while spot volume increased, yet both prices moved down. This is a stronger reminder than a decline in contract volume alone that the short-term price recovery in both markets has yet to stabilize.
The latest settled funding rate, for 20:00, was −0.468788%, compared with −0.057437% at 16:00; the negative rate widened considerably. A negative funding rate usually means shorts pay longs at settlement, indicating a clear divergence in the cost structure of positions. It does not guarantee a rise, nor does it prove that positions must be closed in the next hour. The two complete hours of declines after this settlement have already shown that a deeply negative funding rate and continued price weakness can coexist. A settled rate does not indicate what the next funding rate will be.
Open interest fell from 144.91 million MAGIC at 19:00 to 137.52 million at 22:00, a decrease of 5.10%. With the price giving back gains while outstanding contracts continued to decline, this looks more like a position-reduction phase. However, the data does not distinguish voluntary closures from liquidations, nor can it identify which side is exiting. The latest complete four-hour period, from 16:00 to 20:00, gained just 1.13%. The 20:00–24:00 period is not yet complete, so no conclusion can be drawn about the current four-hour period in advance.
Treasure’s official website still lists MAGIC as a token in its Agents computing-power consumption mechanism, but this query yielded no reliable new business data that could explain the price action over these few hours. Product mechanics and actual growth in usage should be considered separately; intraday volatility cannot be attributed solely to the AI narrative.
For now, first watch whether the area around 0.102020 can provide stable support, then whether a complete hourly candle can reclaim 0.112220. Only a further move above 0.116960, accompanied by spot-market participation, would justify a more positive assessment of the recovery’s durability. If the lows continue to give way, 0.100590 and 0.097270 remain reference points from previous lows. Funding rates can signal divergence, but any change in the price outlook must be supported by actual closes and buying support.