BTC has already had 10 days of unusually large moves this year, more than the 8 it had in all of 2018. Yet overall volatility has actually fallen.
These are figures from CoinDesk’s October 10 report. It sounds contradictory, but here’s what they count: days when the price change was at least three times the daily volatility of the previous 30 days, whether up or down.
It’s like someone who usually speaks softly suddenly raising their voice—it stands out more. More such days doesn’t mean every drop was steeper than before, let alone that “BTC crashed 10 times this year.”
I think what this data really highlights is the assumption that “things have been pretty calm lately, so the risk must be low.” Using recent calm to estimate the worst-case scenario can easily lead to an overly optimistic estimate.
#BTC
These are figures from CoinDesk’s October 10 report. It sounds contradictory, but here’s what they count: days when the price change was at least three times the daily volatility of the previous 30 days, whether up or down.
It’s like someone who usually speaks softly suddenly raising their voice—it stands out more. More such days doesn’t mean every drop was steeper than before, let alone that “BTC crashed 10 times this year.”
I think what this data really highlights is the assumption that “things have been pretty calm lately, so the risk must be low.” Using recent calm to estimate the worst-case scenario can easily lead to an overly optimistic estimate.
#BTC