A year ago, the “October 11 crash” liquidated $19 billion in long positions. A year later, around the same time, BTC is once again approaching the $80,500 cost basis identified by Darkfost.
Last October, BTC plunged from its all-time high of $126,000 to $105,000, wiping out leveraged longs. Mark Connors of Risk Dimensions noted that the top formed too quickly and open interest was near record highs. Crowded positions betting that the “four-year cycle would keep pushing prices higher” were caught on the wrong side of the move.
Institutional data looks optimistic at first glance: order book depth has recovered to pre-crash levels. Two days ago, Morgan Stanley added about 91.685 BTC through MSBT, bringing its total holdings to 10,639 BTC, worth around $880 million. But CoinDesk points out that although BTC’s daily volatility has declined, 2026 has already seen 10 unusually large trading days, making “extreme volatility” more frequent than in 2018.
Altcoins remain structurally weak: liquidity is rebuilding in BTC and ETH, while altcoin liquidity continues to erode. Daily transactions on Robinhood Chain have fallen from 10.8 million to 6.2 million since mid-September, a drop of more than 40%. Robinhood is still subsidizing network fees for swaps—the momentum from subsidized user acquisition is fading too quickly.
Regulation and infrastructure: France’s parliament passed amendments to tax stablecoin conversions and wealthy people leaving the crypto market, then rejected the revenue section of the 2027 budget. South Korea stressed that limits on major shareholders’ stakes are intended to align with the infrastructure nature of the business. Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission reported that virtual asset trading commissions fell 13.5% quarter over quarter to around HK$99.3 million in the first half of 2026. On the infrastructure front, NEAR-backed SVRN acquired FastNEAR; post-quantum cryptography for Tron launched on testnet; and researchers disclosed and fixed a payment vulnerability in the XRP Ledger that had existed for a decade and could have been used to mint billions of dollars’ worth of XRP out of thin air.
📌 Takeaways: ① $80,500 is the line in the sand for BTC bulls and bears. Institutions are quietly accumulating (Morgan Stanley, and Meanwhile Life Insurance refinancing), but derivatives leverage is not significantly lower than it was before last year’s crash. The risk of a second liquidation cascade on the same day should not be underestimated—keep positions light over the holiday and avoid unhedged longs. ② Altcoin liquidity woes are structural, not cyclical. The contraction on Robinhood Chain is an early warning sign; prioritize assets with real usage or a clear institutional investment case. ③ Post-quantum technology, mainnet upgrades, and regulatory implementation are medium-term narratives with limited near-term impact. The prompt fix for the XRP vulnerability is a positive.
In the last two weeks of October, will BTC hold $80,500 or repeat last year’s script? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇
This is for sharing personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions at your own discretion.
Last October, BTC plunged from its all-time high of $126,000 to $105,000, wiping out leveraged longs. Mark Connors of Risk Dimensions noted that the top formed too quickly and open interest was near record highs. Crowded positions betting that the “four-year cycle would keep pushing prices higher” were caught on the wrong side of the move.
Institutional data looks optimistic at first glance: order book depth has recovered to pre-crash levels. Two days ago, Morgan Stanley added about 91.685 BTC through MSBT, bringing its total holdings to 10,639 BTC, worth around $880 million. But CoinDesk points out that although BTC’s daily volatility has declined, 2026 has already seen 10 unusually large trading days, making “extreme volatility” more frequent than in 2018.
Altcoins remain structurally weak: liquidity is rebuilding in BTC and ETH, while altcoin liquidity continues to erode. Daily transactions on Robinhood Chain have fallen from 10.8 million to 6.2 million since mid-September, a drop of more than 40%. Robinhood is still subsidizing network fees for swaps—the momentum from subsidized user acquisition is fading too quickly.
Regulation and infrastructure: France’s parliament passed amendments to tax stablecoin conversions and wealthy people leaving the crypto market, then rejected the revenue section of the 2027 budget. South Korea stressed that limits on major shareholders’ stakes are intended to align with the infrastructure nature of the business. Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission reported that virtual asset trading commissions fell 13.5% quarter over quarter to around HK$99.3 million in the first half of 2026. On the infrastructure front, NEAR-backed SVRN acquired FastNEAR; post-quantum cryptography for Tron launched on testnet; and researchers disclosed and fixed a payment vulnerability in the XRP Ledger that had existed for a decade and could have been used to mint billions of dollars’ worth of XRP out of thin air.
📌 Takeaways: ① $80,500 is the line in the sand for BTC bulls and bears. Institutions are quietly accumulating (Morgan Stanley, and Meanwhile Life Insurance refinancing), but derivatives leverage is not significantly lower than it was before last year’s crash. The risk of a second liquidation cascade on the same day should not be underestimated—keep positions light over the holiday and avoid unhedged longs. ② Altcoin liquidity woes are structural, not cyclical. The contraction on Robinhood Chain is an early warning sign; prioritize assets with real usage or a clear institutional investment case. ③ Post-quantum technology, mainnet upgrades, and regulatory implementation are medium-term narratives with limited near-term impact. The prompt fix for the XRP vulnerability is a positive.
In the last two weeks of October, will BTC hold $80,500 or repeat last year’s script? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇
This is for sharing personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions at your own discretion.