⚠️ BTC struggles to rebound after breaking below $84K. Can it hold the $80K level?
📊 Market snapshot
BTC: $82,855 | 4H range: 82,838–82,890
↘ Fell from 85,854 to 80,394 (10/8 low), down 6.4%
ETH: $2,497 | 4H range: 2,495–2,498
↘ Fell from 2,707 to 2,406 (10/8 low), down 11.1%
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, putting even more pressure on altcoins.
1️⃣ Wyckoff analysis
The 80,394 low on 10/8 came with a surge in volume (6,450 BTC traded), showing signs of a Selling Climax (SC). The subsequent rebound to 83,250 was an Automatic Rally (AR). Price is now moving sideways on declining volume in the 82,500–83,000 range, entering the Secondary Test (ST) phase.
Key point to watch: If 80,394 is not breached again and price stabilizes on lower volume, an accumulation structure will be confirmed. A high-volume break below 80,000 would signal a continuation of the Markdown phase.
2️⃣ 2B rule assessment
After BTC hit a low of 80,394 on 10/8, it quickly rebounded to close at 81,776, forming a classic 2B false-breakout pattern (briefly breaking below the previous low before quickly recovering). The last four consecutive 4H candles have held above 82,500, so the 2B buy signal is showing initial confirmation.
Stop-loss reference: A break below 80,300 invalidates the 2B setup; exit decisively.
3️⃣ Dow Theory
The decline from 85,854 constitutes the primary trend (Lower Highs: 85,854→84,379→83,529→83,418). The rebound to 83,250 on 10/8 is only a secondary reaction and has yet to break above the last Lower High at 83,418.
Reversal confirmation: A 4H close above 84,000 is needed to confirm a bullish trend reversal. Until then, this remains a rebound within a bearish market structure.
🛡️ Trading strategy
• Short-term long: Try a small position at 82,200–82,500, with a stop-loss at 80,200 and a target of 84,000.
• If price breaks below 80,000 on high volume, reverse to a short position targeting 78,000–76,500.
• ETH is moving in tandem but has fallen more sharply; prioritize BTC for long positions.
• Wait and see ahead of tonight’s U.S. stock market open; enter only once the direction is clear.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析
📊 Market snapshot
BTC: $82,855 | 4H range: 82,838–82,890
↘ Fell from 85,854 to 80,394 (10/8 low), down 6.4%
ETH: $2,497 | 4H range: 2,495–2,498
↘ Fell from 2,707 to 2,406 (10/8 low), down 11.1%
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, putting even more pressure on altcoins.
1️⃣ Wyckoff analysis
The 80,394 low on 10/8 came with a surge in volume (6,450 BTC traded), showing signs of a Selling Climax (SC). The subsequent rebound to 83,250 was an Automatic Rally (AR). Price is now moving sideways on declining volume in the 82,500–83,000 range, entering the Secondary Test (ST) phase.
Key point to watch: If 80,394 is not breached again and price stabilizes on lower volume, an accumulation structure will be confirmed. A high-volume break below 80,000 would signal a continuation of the Markdown phase.
2️⃣ 2B rule assessment
After BTC hit a low of 80,394 on 10/8, it quickly rebounded to close at 81,776, forming a classic 2B false-breakout pattern (briefly breaking below the previous low before quickly recovering). The last four consecutive 4H candles have held above 82,500, so the 2B buy signal is showing initial confirmation.
Stop-loss reference: A break below 80,300 invalidates the 2B setup; exit decisively.
3️⃣ Dow Theory
The decline from 85,854 constitutes the primary trend (Lower Highs: 85,854→84,379→83,529→83,418). The rebound to 83,250 on 10/8 is only a secondary reaction and has yet to break above the last Lower High at 83,418.
Reversal confirmation: A 4H close above 84,000 is needed to confirm a bullish trend reversal. Until then, this remains a rebound within a bearish market structure.
🛡️ Trading strategy
• Short-term long: Try a small position at 82,200–82,500, with a stop-loss at 80,200 and a target of 84,000.
• If price breaks below 80,000 on high volume, reverse to a short position targeting 78,000–76,500.
• ETH is moving in tandem but has fallen more sharply; prioritize BTC for long positions.
• Wait and see ahead of tonight’s U.S. stock market open; enter only once the direction is clear.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析