$LUMIA 's recovery did not continue from the previous hour. It first pulled back, then rebounded on lower trading volume. I still choose to wait and see, but my focus now needs to shift from whether it can catch up to the highs to whether the low-level rebound is seeing sustained support: the support observed in the previous analysis was decisively broken in a completed hourly candle, so the assessment must be updated.
As of 20:00 on October 10, complete data was available for all 523 Binance USDT perpetual contracts. LUMIA ranked second with a 24-hour gain of 36.67%, quoted at 0.110390. The analysis at 18:00 discussed the low-volume recovery from 17:00 to 18:00 and watched for support at 0.108100 and a breakout above 0.117660. This update adds the two complete hours from 18:00 to 20:00, as well as the newly completed four-hour period from 16:00 to 20:00. We can no longer use the earlier description of a recovery that was still in progress at the time.
From 18:00 to 19:00, the perpetual price fell from 0.115660 to 0.107520, a decline of 7.04%. It hit a low of 0.105070, with trading volume of 10.427 million USDT. The 0.108100 level was not only breached intrahour; the price also failed to reclaim it by the close. The previous rebound improved the closing price but failed to hold through the next hour, showing that the recovery lacked staying power;
From 19:00 to 20:00, the price rose from 0.107460 to 0.109990, up 2.35%. It reached a high of 0.112400 and a low of 0.107120, with trading volume of 5.6238 million USDT, down 46.06% from the previous hour. It reclaimed the area around 0.108100, but remained below the 0.115630 level of the previous recovery. The rebound's direction improved while trading activity continued to decline; both can be true at the same time. Lower volume does not prove that selling pressure has ended.
Spot also fell first and then rebounded. From 18:00 to 19:00, it fell from 0.115700 to 0.107400; from 19:00 to 20:00, it rose back to 0.110000. Trading volume declined from 1.2009 million to 624,700 USDT. Both markets recovered, and volume contracted in both. Spot price action is more informative than an isolated move in perpetuals, but these trading volumes still represent turnover and cannot be treated as net inflows.
The OI data that was missing from the previous analysis at 18:00 is now available: 80.7969 million LUMIA at 18:00, and 80.8121 million at 19:00, meaning the amount was almost unchanged during the pullback hour. By 20:00, it had risen to 83.9524 million, up 3.89% from 19:00. This rebound came alongside an increase in open contracts, while the preceding pullback was not accompanied by a major reduction in positions. New contracts include both longs and shorts; OI cannot tell us who initiated the buying, and an increase in OI alone is no guarantee that the uptrend is resuming.
The latest settled funding rate at 20:00 remained +0.005000%, unchanged from 16:00, so the rate offered no new directional signal. Over the just-completed four-hour period from 16:00 to 20:00, the price fell from 0.124580 to 0.109990, down 11.71%, with trading volume of 73.8707 million USDT. This contrasts with the sharp rise from 12:00 to 16:00. The 24-hour gain remains high, but the short-term move has already given back a substantial amount,
Binance's 2024 announcement that ORN was converted and renamed LUMIA is included only to confirm the asset's identity. No reliable announcement has been found for today that could independently explain the latest price and volume changes, so the old renaming news is not being treated as today's positive catalyst.
Next, watch whether support near 0.105070 continues to hold, then whether a completed hourly candle confirms a breakout above 0.112400. If price moves higher and both volume and spot participation improve, then reassess whether 0.115630 and 0.117660 can be reclaimed. If 0.105070 is lost again, reassess this low-level rebound; 0.103770 remains the low reference from the earlier pullback hour.
As of 20:00 on October 10, complete data was available for all 523 Binance USDT perpetual contracts. LUMIA ranked second with a 24-hour gain of 36.67%, quoted at 0.110390. The analysis at 18:00 discussed the low-volume recovery from 17:00 to 18:00 and watched for support at 0.108100 and a breakout above 0.117660. This update adds the two complete hours from 18:00 to 20:00, as well as the newly completed four-hour period from 16:00 to 20:00. We can no longer use the earlier description of a recovery that was still in progress at the time.
From 18:00 to 19:00, the perpetual price fell from 0.115660 to 0.107520, a decline of 7.04%. It hit a low of 0.105070, with trading volume of 10.427 million USDT. The 0.108100 level was not only breached intrahour; the price also failed to reclaim it by the close. The previous rebound improved the closing price but failed to hold through the next hour, showing that the recovery lacked staying power;
From 19:00 to 20:00, the price rose from 0.107460 to 0.109990, up 2.35%. It reached a high of 0.112400 and a low of 0.107120, with trading volume of 5.6238 million USDT, down 46.06% from the previous hour. It reclaimed the area around 0.108100, but remained below the 0.115630 level of the previous recovery. The rebound's direction improved while trading activity continued to decline; both can be true at the same time. Lower volume does not prove that selling pressure has ended.
Spot also fell first and then rebounded. From 18:00 to 19:00, it fell from 0.115700 to 0.107400; from 19:00 to 20:00, it rose back to 0.110000. Trading volume declined from 1.2009 million to 624,700 USDT. Both markets recovered, and volume contracted in both. Spot price action is more informative than an isolated move in perpetuals, but these trading volumes still represent turnover and cannot be treated as net inflows.
The OI data that was missing from the previous analysis at 18:00 is now available: 80.7969 million LUMIA at 18:00, and 80.8121 million at 19:00, meaning the amount was almost unchanged during the pullback hour. By 20:00, it had risen to 83.9524 million, up 3.89% from 19:00. This rebound came alongside an increase in open contracts, while the preceding pullback was not accompanied by a major reduction in positions. New contracts include both longs and shorts; OI cannot tell us who initiated the buying, and an increase in OI alone is no guarantee that the uptrend is resuming.
The latest settled funding rate at 20:00 remained +0.005000%, unchanged from 16:00, so the rate offered no new directional signal. Over the just-completed four-hour period from 16:00 to 20:00, the price fell from 0.124580 to 0.109990, down 11.71%, with trading volume of 73.8707 million USDT. This contrasts with the sharp rise from 12:00 to 16:00. The 24-hour gain remains high, but the short-term move has already given back a substantial amount,
Binance's 2024 announcement that ORN was converted and renamed LUMIA is included only to confirm the asset's identity. No reliable announcement has been found for today that could independently explain the latest price and volume changes, so the old renaming news is not being treated as today's positive catalyst.
Next, watch whether support near 0.105070 continues to hold, then whether a completed hourly candle confirms a breakout above 0.112400. If price moves higher and both volume and spot participation improve, then reassess whether 0.115630 and 0.117660 can be reclaimed. If 0.105070 is lost again, reassess this low-level rebound; 0.103770 remains the low reference from the earlier pullback hour.