Russia’s agreement to export diesel to the United States is also a form of diplomatic and political leverage, driving a wedge between the United States and Ukraine. Trump understands this, but to address the impact of current energy prices on the midterm elections, he may be willing to sacrifice Ukraine’s interests.
As for Russia, its crude oil exports may appear to be helping the United States, but in reality they only treat the symptoms, not the cause. At the same time, Russia can gain more funds to put pressure on Ukraine. And as for Iran, it probably wouldn’t object if it received a little more material and military assistance.
Looking at the energy data, last week brought a string of encouraging energy export figures, but things began to deteriorate this week. As I said last week, improved energy flows in the data don’t necessarily mean the underlying problems can actually be solved.
The Financial Times reports that after Iran expanded its restrictions on energy transportation to the entire Persian Gulf this week, energy transport data deteriorated again, falling from last week’s recovery to 74% of prewar levels to 58%. If Iran continues to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf, energy exports will remain a problem.
On the other hand, many people say that energy exports from the Gulf of Mexico could replace those from the Middle East. That’s possible in theory, but it will take more time to increase energy production. Reuters reports that, as of now, the risk of higher energy transportation costs has spread worldwide. Shipping costs from the Gulf of Mexico to China are already up 300% compared with mid-August.
The fact that the energy supply side cannot change the current US-Iran situation is not good news. As investors, we hope oil prices will return to normal and ease the pressure on the global economy and financial markets. But for Iran, effectively causing trouble for the United States is an effective strategy—and it may even step things up further, inevitably raising the costs and barriers to resolving the US-Iran conflict through either confrontation or negotiations.
At this rate, if energy supplies and global transportation costs continue to rise, and Trump needs to maintain a hard-line stance, then energy and financial markets will remain under pressure and suffer until November 3. As for what happens after the midterm elections—whether there will be a fight or a deal—that’s what will give the market a clear answer.
What the market fears most is this kind of silent standoff—this complex uncertainty! #Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT
As for Russia, its crude oil exports may appear to be helping the United States, but in reality they only treat the symptoms, not the cause. At the same time, Russia can gain more funds to put pressure on Ukraine. And as for Iran, it probably wouldn’t object if it received a little more material and military assistance.
Looking at the energy data, last week brought a string of encouraging energy export figures, but things began to deteriorate this week. As I said last week, improved energy flows in the data don’t necessarily mean the underlying problems can actually be solved.
The Financial Times reports that after Iran expanded its restrictions on energy transportation to the entire Persian Gulf this week, energy transport data deteriorated again, falling from last week’s recovery to 74% of prewar levels to 58%. If Iran continues to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf, energy exports will remain a problem.
On the other hand, many people say that energy exports from the Gulf of Mexico could replace those from the Middle East. That’s possible in theory, but it will take more time to increase energy production. Reuters reports that, as of now, the risk of higher energy transportation costs has spread worldwide. Shipping costs from the Gulf of Mexico to China are already up 300% compared with mid-August.
The fact that the energy supply side cannot change the current US-Iran situation is not good news. As investors, we hope oil prices will return to normal and ease the pressure on the global economy and financial markets. But for Iran, effectively causing trouble for the United States is an effective strategy—and it may even step things up further, inevitably raising the costs and barriers to resolving the US-Iran conflict through either confrontation or negotiations.
At this rate, if energy supplies and global transportation costs continue to rise, and Trump needs to maintain a hard-line stance, then energy and financial markets will remain under pressure and suffer until November 3. As for what happens after the midterm elections—whether there will be a fight or a deal—that’s what will give the market a clear answer.
What the market fears most is this kind of silent standoff—this complex uncertainty! #Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT