On October 10, TradingBeats monitoring showed that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October on Polymarket was only about 15.5%, yet trader tetrose continued to hold a previously established bet on a hike. According to BlockBeats On-chain Detection, tetrose also held BTC and S&P 500 index short positions on Hyperliquid.

In the prediction market, tetrose held about 297,800 Yes contracts on a 25-basis-point October hike, with an average entry price implying a probability of about 23.42%. As market expectations for a hike eased, the position was worth about $46,200, leaving an unrealized loss of about $23,600.

Separately, after stopping out yesterday, tetrose again shorted about 20.95 BTC, with a notional value of about $1.73 million and an unrealized loss of about $6,491. The trader also held an S&P 500 index short position worth about $2.71 million, with an unrealized loss of about $1,666. The two short positions had a combined notional value of about $4.45 million.