$BTC With the approval of spot ETFs and the involvement of traditional capital, many people share an intuitive feeling: the Bitcoin train has gotten heavier, volatility is subsiding, and the market is starting to look more like blue-chip U.S. stocks.
That intuition—that volatility is declining—is supported by the data. But in terms of how it feels to trade, I think it’s extremely dangerous.
The market is currently exhibiting a highly deceptive feature: everyday trading is dead calm, yet extreme, unprecedented one-way moves are happening more often than before.
If you keep thinking that the broader crypto market has no action and isn’t worth trading, then when an extreme move suddenly arrives, you won’t have done the research and preparation you need. You’re more likely to fall into a vicious cycle: your enthusiasm is just reigniting and you’re getting ready to enter, but the move is already nearly over.
So understanding the tail risks lurking beneath the low-volatility appearance of the broader crypto market, led by BTC, is essential to developing your trading strategy for the next phase.$KAIA
BTC has more days of extreme moves than it did six years ago
To objectively measure this contrast, let’s look at two sets of hard data.
According to CoinDesk’s latest estimates, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility this year has fallen sharply, from around 84% during the 2018 bear market to about 46%. In the standard risk models widely used on Wall Street, such as VaR (Value at Risk), volatility of 46% typically signals that an asset’s risk is decreasing. The system mechanically sends a signal that “conditions are safe and leverage can be increased.”
But there’s another side to the coin: these models, which smooth out volatility, miss the black swan events that are now erupting at high frequency.$MAGIC
The data also show that in the trading days so far in 2026, Bitcoin has recorded 10 instances of extreme market moves with deviations exceeding “three standard deviations.” In statistics, “three standard deviations” means that the day’s price movement has completely broken out of its recent normal trading range, amounting to an exceptionally rare, sudden surge or plunge.
For comparison, during the 2018 bear market, when Bitcoin lost 73% of its market capitalization, there were just eight trading days of the same extreme magnitude over the entire year.
This means the market isn’t without big moves. Rather, those moves no longer take the form of prolonged trends; they’ve been compressed into highly concentrated, single-day bursts of extreme rallies and crashes.#Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT
That intuition—that volatility is declining—is supported by the data. But in terms of how it feels to trade, I think it’s extremely dangerous.
The market is currently exhibiting a highly deceptive feature: everyday trading is dead calm, yet extreme, unprecedented one-way moves are happening more often than before.
If you keep thinking that the broader crypto market has no action and isn’t worth trading, then when an extreme move suddenly arrives, you won’t have done the research and preparation you need. You’re more likely to fall into a vicious cycle: your enthusiasm is just reigniting and you’re getting ready to enter, but the move is already nearly over.
So understanding the tail risks lurking beneath the low-volatility appearance of the broader crypto market, led by BTC, is essential to developing your trading strategy for the next phase.$KAIA
BTC has more days of extreme moves than it did six years ago
To objectively measure this contrast, let’s look at two sets of hard data.
According to CoinDesk’s latest estimates, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility this year has fallen sharply, from around 84% during the 2018 bear market to about 46%. In the standard risk models widely used on Wall Street, such as VaR (Value at Risk), volatility of 46% typically signals that an asset’s risk is decreasing. The system mechanically sends a signal that “conditions are safe and leverage can be increased.”
But there’s another side to the coin: these models, which smooth out volatility, miss the black swan events that are now erupting at high frequency.$MAGIC
The data also show that in the trading days so far in 2026, Bitcoin has recorded 10 instances of extreme market moves with deviations exceeding “three standard deviations.” In statistics, “three standard deviations” means that the day’s price movement has completely broken out of its recent normal trading range, amounting to an exceptionally rare, sudden surge or plunge.
For comparison, during the 2018 bear market, when Bitcoin lost 73% of its market capitalization, there were just eight trading days of the same extreme magnitude over the entire year.
This means the market isn’t without big moves. Rather, those moves no longer take the form of prolonged trends; they’ve been compressed into highly concentrated, single-day bursts of extreme rallies and crashes.#Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT