Macro in 3 Minutes | October 10
Last night I said the long end had pulled back for a day, not that it was a turning point. It didn’t pull back again today, but it didn’t recover what it had given up, either. The move was at the short end.
At the US Treasury market close on October 9: the 2-year yield rose from 4.75% to 4.80%, up 5 basis points in a day; the 30-year stayed pinned at 5.60%, unchanged from yesterday. The 10-year edged up from 5.22% to 5.24%.
Today the Fed released its 2025 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking—not an interest rate decision. The Bank of Japan put out no new rate statement.
Crypto barely moved. This morning I had Bitcoin at 82529; now it’s $BTC 82660, $ETH 2492, $BNB 747. The Fear and Greed Index is still at 64.
The short end pulling back while the long end holds steady—that’s a shape, not a turning point. BNB is still a long way from 770. I’m not buying this leg.
Are you just watching, or have you already made a move?
Last night I said the long end had pulled back for a day, not that it was a turning point. It didn’t pull back again today, but it didn’t recover what it had given up, either. The move was at the short end.
At the US Treasury market close on October 9: the 2-year yield rose from 4.75% to 4.80%, up 5 basis points in a day; the 30-year stayed pinned at 5.60%, unchanged from yesterday. The 10-year edged up from 5.22% to 5.24%.
Today the Fed released its 2025 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking—not an interest rate decision. The Bank of Japan put out no new rate statement.
Crypto barely moved. This morning I had Bitcoin at 82529; now it’s $BTC 82660, $ETH 2492, $BNB 747. The Fear and Greed Index is still at 64.
The short end pulling back while the long end holds steady—that’s a shape, not a turning point. BNB is still a long way from 770. I’m not buying this leg.
Are you just watching, or have you already made a move?