As we discussed back when BTC was near its lows around $57k, taking this model into account makes sense. But it is just as naive to assume that every cycle has to repeat the previous one day for day and percentage for percentage.

At this point, BTC's low was set in July 2026, about eight months after the October 2025 peak. This is faster than all previous cycles, where bottoming took at least a year.

Every model has a margin of error. Trying to tie it to a specific date and then claiming, “It didn’t line up perfectly, so the four-year cycle is gone” is, in my view, the usual logic of you-know-who. The point of a model isn’t to know and predict a specific day, but to understand roughly where the market is in the larger cycle.

So if the bottom is still ahead of us, it’s highly unlikely to be in October, and November is also unlikely. I’d consider the first half of 2027 an extreme scenario for an extended bear market. But the current price action doesn’t support that yet.

As of today, unless proven otherwise, the bottom of BTC’s four-year cycle remains July 2026, at around $57k. And right now, Bitcoin is in a new four-year cycle.

In my view, this cycle could be left-translated, with the main events and the peak occurring before 2029—a date most people will expect out of habit. But we’ll talk more about that later.