Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but extreme price moves this year have already surpassed those during the 2018 bear market
As of October 10, Bitcoin has seen 10 trading days with “3-standard-deviation” moves so far in 2026, exceeding the 8 recorded during the entire 2018 bear market. Although Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen from 84% in 2018 to around 46%, extreme moves remain frequent relative to recent price volatility.
“3-standard-deviation” moves measure how far prices deviate from their recent normal range of fluctuations. Data shows that Bitcoin’s average gain or loss on such extreme days this year has been about 7%, below the roughly 10% recorded in 2018. Since 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia’s. Yet over the same period, Bitcoin has seen 26 “3-standard-deviation” trading days—far more than Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12.
Market participants say macroeconomic shocks, combined with leverage and concentrated positioning in derivatives markets, are key factors behind the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large volumes, betting that markets will remain calm, unexpected news can force a wave of related positions to unwind, amplifying price swings.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risk during extreme market moves, and that investors should pay more attention to risk metrics such as Expected Shortfall. At the same time, greater institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are strengthening the market’s ability to absorb shocks—but that does not mean extreme volatility will disappear.
As of October 10, Bitcoin has seen 10 trading days with “3-standard-deviation” moves so far in 2026, exceeding the 8 recorded during the entire 2018 bear market. Although Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen from 84% in 2018 to around 46%, extreme moves remain frequent relative to recent price volatility.
“3-standard-deviation” moves measure how far prices deviate from their recent normal range of fluctuations. Data shows that Bitcoin’s average gain or loss on such extreme days this year has been about 7%, below the roughly 10% recorded in 2018. Since 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia’s. Yet over the same period, Bitcoin has seen 26 “3-standard-deviation” trading days—far more than Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12.
Market participants say macroeconomic shocks, combined with leverage and concentrated positioning in derivatives markets, are key factors behind the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large volumes, betting that markets will remain calm, unexpected news can force a wave of related positions to unwind, amplifying price swings.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risk during extreme market moves, and that investors should pay more attention to risk metrics such as Expected Shortfall. At the same time, greater institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are strengthening the market’s ability to absorb shocks—but that does not mean extreme volatility will disappear.