I just saw some data: $ETH ’s exchange balance has fallen to its lowest level in years.
Put simply, there are fewer coins sitting on exchanges ready to be sold.
That doesn’t necessarily mean prices will rise right away, but it does show one thing: quite a few people have withdrawn their coins and aren’t planning to sell at this price.
They may be staking them, or moving them to cold wallets to hold.
Either way, the result is the same: there’s less supply on the market that can be dumped at any moment.
That’s the exact opposite of what we saw last year, when exchange balances kept rising. Back then, everyone seemed to be lining up to sell. Now it looks more like people are locking their coins away and sitting tight.
I think this signal is more meaningful than looking at the candlestick chart alone. You can draw whatever you want on a chart; it’s harder to fake on-chain balances.
Of course, don’t get carried away. Low balances don’t mean prices will shoot up immediately. If demand doesn’t follow, prices could still move sideways for a long time.
My take: cautiously bullish, but I’m not chasing. If you want to keep an eye on things, watch whether exchange balances keep falling and whether spot buying can pick up.
If the money stays on the sidelines, withdrawals alone won’t take us far.
Put simply, there are fewer coins sitting on exchanges ready to be sold.
That doesn’t necessarily mean prices will rise right away, but it does show one thing: quite a few people have withdrawn their coins and aren’t planning to sell at this price.
They may be staking them, or moving them to cold wallets to hold.
Either way, the result is the same: there’s less supply on the market that can be dumped at any moment.
That’s the exact opposite of what we saw last year, when exchange balances kept rising. Back then, everyone seemed to be lining up to sell. Now it looks more like people are locking their coins away and sitting tight.
I think this signal is more meaningful than looking at the candlestick chart alone. You can draw whatever you want on a chart; it’s harder to fake on-chain balances.
Of course, don’t get carried away. Low balances don’t mean prices will shoot up immediately. If demand doesn’t follow, prices could still move sideways for a long time.
My take: cautiously bullish, but I’m not chasing. If you want to keep an eye on things, watch whether exchange balances keep falling and whether spot buying can pick up.
If the money stays on the sidelines, withdrawals alone won’t take us far.